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View Diary: Magic tricks, loopholes, government shutdowns and the debt ceiling (158 comments)

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  •  If we win as we did in 2006, we will take (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gary Norton

    the House.

    In hindsight, it's kind of amazing that we were able to do that.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 09:23:09 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Not true (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bailey2001, chuckvw

      If we only win the same percentage of votes that we did in 2006, we don't take the House.

      In fact, we would have to do a LOT better. The gerrymandering is dramatically more effective this time around.

      •  Many people said the same thing (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gary Norton, Eric Nelson

        after the 2000 redistricting.

        Yes, I do think they did a better job this time, but political terrain can shift in unpredictable ways. North Carolina put a lot of seats out of reach, but I am not prepared to say that PA, OH, and MI did.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 10:32:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  No, this is not correct. We would need a higher (0+ / 0-)

      percentage to gain the House in 2014 as compared to our take in 2006. Quite a bit higher, in fact.

      •  State your assumptions clearly please (0+ / 0-)

        If one of them is an even swing, then you are quite possibly "not correct" yourself.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 12:01:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  We would need at least a 7 point swing in our (0+ / 0-)

          direction and some state as high as 9.  With the current gerrymandering and district layouts, the likelihood of accomplishing even 2006 levels is a tough mountain to climb even if we are indeed in favorable conditions come election time.  This doesn't even consider our very usual disadvantage of turning out our base in midterms nor any political fall out that may come with the debt and/or gun proposals.

          We must GOTV like it's an election year now.

          •  Assuming a uniform swing? Yes or no? (0+ / 0-)

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 01:22:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Most likely with those predicting, yes...and your (0+ / 0-)

              thoughts, how do you see a realistic 2014 victory for the House majority?  I am curious, as most are predicting this to close to impossible although gains are quite likely.

              •  I will take that as a yes (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                oculus

                The point is, swings are rarely uniform.

                I am not predicting that we will take back the House in 2014. Rather, I am saying that it would take a wave of the same nature as 2006. I was not making (or intending to make, anyway) a quantitative point about the magnitude of the swing necessary.

                I am hardly ignorant of redistricting and what it can do. On the contrary, I am cognizant of its limitations. Tide doesn't always get the stain out, and gerrymandering doesn't always preserve the partisan balance you expect it to.

                Ok, so I read the polls.

                by andgarden on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 03:05:09 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

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