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  •  Be careful with statistics. (9+ / 0-)

    Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc logical fallacy.

    Somebody published a study years ago in one of the professional statistical journals which addressed this issue.  Seems a carefully detailed study showed there was a positive correlation at the .05 level of confidence, between the time of day babies were born in Chicago and train arrivals in Stockholm, Sweden.

    The general who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses makes but few calculations beforehand. - Sun Tzu

    by Otteray Scribe on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:09:21 AM PST

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    •  As you will note (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Otteray Scribe, lyvwyr101, Smoh

      I was responding to the statistic the diarist quoted.  I have seen this trick of equating violence statistics with homicide statistics used a lot in discussions of gun control.  Throw them both out, or keep them both, but explain the difference.

      If the Republicans ever find out that Barack Obama favors respiration, we'll be a one-party system inside two minutes. - Alan Lewis

      by MadRuth on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:40:34 AM PST

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      •  I agree with that observation. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        theatre goon, gerrilea, PavePusher, ER Doc

        The problem is that most people have not studied statistics and do not understand the underlying problems of trying to find correlations where there may not be any.  This is one reason I particularly like the multiple regression statistic, provided you can identify all the relevant variables to plug in. On the other hand, only a person well trained in advanced statistics can really understand the data set that comes out the other end.  

        The general who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses makes but few calculations beforehand. - Sun Tzu

        by Otteray Scribe on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 10:09:02 AM PST

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      •  I wasn't equating or tricking anything here. (4+ / 0-)

        Crime is crime.  Homicide is violent crime. Rape is violent crime.  Assault is violent crime.  There is no need to delineate anything to present my position. Clearly I failed a bit.

        I'll explain:  The argument is that "gun crimes" must be stopped yet the UK has already done that and their other violent crimes increased.  The trade off being presented is that they've saved lives and that is the only goal that should be considered, right?  Well, how many people live in continual fear after being raped or beaten?  What's the cost to those victims?  A lifetime of quiet desperation, torture and fear?

        The exact things that lead to DESPAIR and more violence.

        I don't want "trade-offs" like that.  I want all violent crime to go down, not just one subset.  How do we do that?  How do we protect the majority of people?  More police, less freedom? Or prosperity brought about by governmental policies that ensure equity under law, living wage jobs and education.   How do we raise humanity's consciousness, not lower it?

        What I'm seeing right now is a race to the bottom, social devolution, not progressive evolution.

        ~Consciousness once raised, cannot be lowered.
        Why can't we do this again?

        -7.62; -5.95 The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite insane.~Tesla

        by gerrilea on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 02:38:59 PM PST

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