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View Diary: The unsettling link between CO2 and sea level rise (25 comments)

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  •  You are much too optimistic (0+ / 0-)

    It won't take a decade to see an ice-free Arctic. In September 2002 Arctic sea ice volume was 10846 cubic kilometers. In September 2012 volume was down to 3371 cubic kilometers. The arithmetic is simple. Argue with me if you want, it is very hard to argue with arithmetic.  Even those who imagine a remnant of ice persisting off the north coast of Greenland and Ellesmere are giving up on the idea there might be 500km for as long as a decade.

    The alarmist view is the ice is will be gone in eight months.  The hair-on-fire view is it will be gone in seven months. The stone sober view is two to three years. Once the ice is gone for a day the ice free period will lengthen very quickly. That's just physics. It requires not only optimism but denial to imagine we shall not be ice free  six months of the year within a decade.

    You are very correct this will end the ability to crop with any predictability. It won't affect only the poor.

    •  Underestimating (1+ / 0-)
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      oldhippie

      Is something that I usually do.

      Yes, there is the possibility that the Arctic will be ice free in the summer within 3 years. However we can always have a La Nina  and or a volcanic eruption to cool things down temporarily.

      When it goes it will go fast due to the heat absorption of water and the melt ponds collecting on top of the thin ice acting like magnifying lenses.

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