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View Diary: The Math of the Gun Lottery (30 comments)

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  •  but (0+ / 0-)

    the analogy is weak because it's almost impossible to win the lottery without buying a ticket.

    In short, this is the math of gun violence in the United States today.
    No, it isn't.  The fantasy that normal people just wake up one day and become a murderer is a fantasy.
    So Mister Beagle’s short answer: “Stop selling so many damn tickets!”
    It doesn't bother you that you've written an entire diary presuming that human agency doesn't exist?  That we're just hunks of meat whose destiny is decided by chunks of metal with, apparently, devils inside of them?

    I always thought it was the conservatives who thought that people are basically evil and need to be restrained to keep them from doing evil.  Liberals are supposed to believe that people are basically good, and thus can be trusted with dangerous things like free speech and democracy.

    the purpose of the second amendment is to promote a well-regulated militia, in the same sense that the purpose of the first amendment is to promote a well-informed electorate.

    by happymisanthropy on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 06:07:40 AM PST

    •  If you are on the wrong end of the bullet, then (3+ / 0-)
      we're just hunks of meat whose destiny is decided by chunks of metal
      Seems you answered  your own question.
      •  so (0+ / 0-)

        given that more than half of "gun deaths" are suicides, you can choose not to.

        the purpose of the second amendment is to promote a well-regulated militia, in the same sense that the purpose of the first amendment is to promote a well-informed electorate.

        by happymisanthropy on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 06:21:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  And the other half - expendable? eom (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DefendOurConstitution, alain2112
          •  what about them? (0+ / 0-)

            if you think it's much better to be dead by a knife than dead by a gun, I guess the argument makes sense.

            the purpose of the second amendment is to promote a well-regulated militia, in the same sense that the purpose of the first amendment is to promote a well-informed electorate.

            by happymisanthropy on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 06:49:38 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Statistics on guns vs. knives (2+ / 0-)

              www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0310.xls

              From 2000-2008 homicides by weapon:

              Firearms                                              86,112
              Knives & other cutting implements         16,547    
              Other                                                  27,082

              Firearms were used in 66% of all homicides for those nine years.  Knives were used in 16%.  Other (including poisoning, drowning, strangling, fire, etc.) were the remainder, 18%.

              Handguns, btw, accounted for 65,581 or slightly more than half of all homicides.  

              Regarding the statistics, they come from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting Program.  Here is the statement regarding what gets listed as a homicide under the UCR:

              The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program defines murder and nonnegligent manslaughter as the willful (nonnegligent) killing of one human being by another. The classification of this offense is based
              solely on police investigation as opposed to the determination of a court, medical examiner, coroner, jury, or other judicial body. The UCR Program does not include the following situations in this offense classification: deaths caused by negligence, suicide, or accident; justifiable homicides; and attempts to murder ...

              "If you tell the truth, you'll eventually be found out." Mark Twain

              by Steven D on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:41:51 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  and? (0+ / 0-)

                why wouldn't murderers choose the best method available?  If things change, they will change their methods, but they won't stop being murderers.

                the purpose of the second amendment is to promote a well-regulated militia, in the same sense that the purpose of the first amendment is to promote a well-informed electorate.

                by happymisanthropy on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 08:46:08 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  That's an assumption (0+ / 0-)

                  Not a fact.  In developed countries with stricter firearms laws murder rates are lower.

                  http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/...

                  RESULTS:

                  In simple regressions (no control variables) across 26 high-income nations, there is a strong and statistically significant association between gun availability and homicide rates.
                  CONCLUSION:

                  Across developed countries, where guns are more available, there are more homicides.

                  Also see:

                  http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/...

                  4. Across states, more guns = more homicide (2)

                  Using survey data on rates of household gun ownership, we examined the association between gun availability and homicide across states, 2001-2003. We found that states with higher levels of household gun ownership had higher rates of firearm homicide and overall homicide.  This relationship held for both genders and all age groups, after accounting for rates of aggravated assault, robbery, unemployment, urbanization, alcohol consumption, and resource deprivation (e.g., poverty). There was no association between gun prevalence and non-firearm homicide.

                  Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David. State-level homicide victimization rates in the U.S. in relation to survey measures of household firearm ownership, 2001-2003. Social Science and Medicine. 2007; 64:656-64.

                  "If you tell the truth, you'll eventually be found out." Mark Twain

                  by Steven D on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 09:05:36 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Sure - see all the drive by knifings (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Steven D, alain2112

              Or the killing spree of the Washington knife thrower.

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