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View Diary: Veteran Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin to retire after the 2014 elections (287 comments)

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  •  this is at least the sixth vulnerable Democratic (0+ / 0-)

    Senate seat in 2014; there may be others, depending on how things pan out, but, right now, this makes six Democratic Senate seats that are very vulnerable, now including two Senators retiring (Rockefeller & Harkin). Other vulnerable Democratic seats, according to my calculations, include Landrieu (LA), Begich (AK), Hagen (NC) and Johnson (SD).

    That compares to only one potentially vulnerable Republican seat (Collins-ME, depending on whether she decides to run again).

    Hopefully, we can get some Tea Baggers to help us out by nominating crackpots too crazy even for conservative states like these.

    •  Eh. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wdrath, KingofSpades, betelgeux

      I think Georgia can be competitive now with the right Democrat and the wrong Republican in the race.  A fringe candidate on the right, combined with someone who's able to galvanize black voters while not sacrificing white support on the Democratic side, could mean a competitive race.

      28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

      by TDDVandy on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 12:03:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  You forgot Pryor... (0+ / 0-)

      Rockefeller retiring means W.Virginia is lost.   It's not quite Nebraska 2012 level of lost, but it's in between Nebraska and N.Dakota.  

      Begich has a helluva uphill battle in Alaska, and only wins if Joe Miller is the GOP candidate.  

      Johnson in South Dakota is the underdog to former GOP Gov Rounds.  

      Those are three pretty sure losses.  

      Then you have Pryor, Landrieu, Baucus and Hagan who could potentially hold on if they run a near perfect campaign.  That still might not be enough for Pryor given the Arkansas trending so red.  Hagan should be helped by the GOP take over of  NC State government and their planning to make Walkers Wisconsin seem tame.  Baucus will look at the Tester campaign, and he should have a weaker challenger than Rehberg.  

      All four of those are toss-ups at best, I'd say in the area between toss-up and Lean R actually.  

      So we're already looking at SEVEN very tough races.  And now we have to worry about Iowa, and this isn't even taking into account Brown in Massachusetts.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 12:25:53 PM PST

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    •  Don't forget MA (0+ / 0-)

      WV is likely a goner.  SD will be a difficulty hold.  Alaska is probably third, but if Miller gets the nomination again, it's a good chance of a hold.  Pryor has a better shot of holding on than Landrieu, but both could make it.  If King is the nominee in Iowa, it's a likely hold.  NC I really don't know.  Would depend on the nominee.

      So, IF the Dems win MA, either this year or next, they're still likely looking at a 2-6 seat loss.  3 or 4 would be my bet right now.  I don't see a gain.

    •  I think Begich will be OK. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wdrath, GoUBears

      and Landrieu has survived this long, mostly by being cozy with oil interests, I guess!

      if necessary for years; if necessary, alone

      by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 06:10:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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