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View Diary: Wow - David Brooks pretty much understands the huge problem Republicans have (141 comments)

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    Nationwide gerrymandering in favor of Republicans at the beginning of decades tends to look pretty good for Democrats at the end.  Much like nationwide net gerrymandering in favor of Democrats early in past decades used see pretty good results for Republicans at their end.

    We're still getting the relentless 1% per year national gains in partisan support that is fairly well distributed across the country.  With periodic- roughly once per decade- falling away of a regionally concentrated 5-10% of the electorate, usually a pretty clearly emerged and well established conservative bloc made up of elderly white lower middle class and working class people.

    We had that kind of crumbling off across the 2000/2002 elections and gone in the 2004 elections.  Their reason was conservative-identified views on national security.  We had a similar loss of voters in 2010 leading to the Blue Dog collapse.  Based in having conservative-identified views on economic matters.  Unlike previous defecting blocs these didn't go over to voting for Romney and Senate level Republicans at least in 2012- they seem to have stayed home in effect.  Which is why this past election was down eight, maybe closer to ten, million voters or so relative to general participation trends.

    But at times other than those with the big bloc defections the net national 1% per year partisan shift to Democrats based in generational turnover comes to bear.  The focus is on how Republicans are failing to appeal to Hispanic voters, but one could argue that their deep failure lies in inability to find or persuade more young white voters.

    All that being said, I'm sorry you're in Ohio and condemned to suffer the defection and collapse of its older type of Democrats.  With ascent of the newer, Ruy-Texeira coalition, kind(s) to plurality hardly in sight in the bulk of Great Lakes country.  (Maybe sufficiently in Chicago or the Twin Cities.)  The national fortunes of the Democratic Party are probably shifting from Midwesterners' hands into the hands of Americans in the Southwest and the central and southern parts of the East Coast during the next decade or two.

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