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View Diary: Stop saying Republican electoral-vote rigging is constitutional. It's not. Here's why. (193 comments)

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  •  Thank you for this. (3+ / 0-)
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    scrivener76, burlydee, Old Lefty

    I am highly, highly suspect that any of the proposed changes to the way these states choose their electors will take effect, either because sufficient numbers of Republicans in these states back away from the changes or, if any changes are enacted, the changes are struck down in court.

    As you note, there is a strong equal protection argument for why these proposed changes will not withstand a constitutional challenge.  Also, and maybe I'm in the minority here: I think enough Republicans will realize these changes will not necessary be to their advantage in the long run.  Not because of the potential electoral backlash (I'm still waiting for the backlash from voter suppression, vaginal probes, etc.) but because this is a severe case of fighting the last battle.  

    First, while these schemes would have made for closer elections in 2008 and 2012, they would not have resulted in a Republican victory in either year.  In 2012, Obama won the electoral college 332-206, meaning Romney needed to take 65 votes from Obama to hit 271.  MI, OH, PA, VA and WI account for 77 electoral votes.  Allocating based on congressional district would not have given Romney the win; he would have needed to win a few of these states outright and/or won another state or two (e.g., Iowa, Colorado).  And given the right candidates and conditions, Republicans are in no way, shape or form out of the running to win any of these states outright.  Pennsylvania and Michigan have been nice and blue for a while, but they are not New York and Illinois.  Splitting the votes in these states does not make the 2016 election a slam dunk for Republicans, and they would risk losing precious electoral votes should their candidate win any of these states outright.

    Second, after two more decades of demographic development, do you think Republicans, if they in any way resemble their current party, are ever going to be able to sniff the White House without winning all of the electoral votes from the whiter-than-average states in the upper Midwest?  Splitting the votes in these states will be deadly for the Republicans in 2030, when Texas will be in play and Arizona will be solid blue.

    •  self-serving Repubs will be to our advantage. (1+ / 0-)
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      This nationalizes every congressional race in these states.  These lazy fat cats who get reelected every year will face an entirely new election landscape that could put their individual sorry asses in jeopardy.  

      Also, I agree with Steve Benen.  We made our voices heard on this - sunlight is the best disinfectant.  We're fighting often, we're fighting smart and we're fighting for the long haul.  We have a long way to go before we match this winning combination that Republicans have used for 30 years but we're making significant progress.  

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