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View Diary: PPP - Hillary with lead in Texas (46 comments)

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  •  Remember what our lineup was in 2004? (0+ / 0-)

    I don't remember the junior senator from Illinois being on my short list for 2008. We have got time.

    •  Did you watch Obama's 2004 DNC speech? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Andrew F Cockburn

      You didn't think he was going to be a serious contender in 2008?  Everyone I know did.

      •  The last political speech I remember watching (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        slothlax

        on TV was Reagan at the Republican convention in 1976. I had to take a cold shower afterward to restore my Democratic principles. Man, was he good.

        So no, I did not watch Obama. I did hear about it, though. I figured that in ten years or so he might really be going somewhere. But 2008, no way.

        I should have been more prepared. JFK came out of nowhere. Carter came out of nowhere. Clinton came out of nowhere. Even FDR was kind of a surprise. We are liberals and always looking for the great new thing.

        The Republicans, being conservatives, usually nominate the guy who was the obvious runner up the cycle before, or at least an insider that everyone knows. The only exception I can think of is Goldwater.

        •  That leaves an open field then, right? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Andrew F Cockburn

          Romney didn't really have any credible opponents.  Maybe Huckabee from 2008?  Any other former candidates who are anywhere close to viable?  That will be weird for Republicans.

          There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

          by slothlax on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 05:18:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Jeb Bush? Chris Christie? (0+ / 0-)

            This was a strange year for them. Most of their big guns sat it out because it looked like Obama was a lock.

            They have got a problem. Possibly the most electable candidate they had this year was Huntsman, who barely moved the needle in the primary. Christie would be a formidable candidate in 2012 but I can't imagine that the Tea Party is going to forget him cozying up to Obama. Maybe they will run McCain again.

            •  Jeb could fit the formula (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Andrew F Cockburn

              George W was not involved in 1996, IIRC.  So I suppose being related to a former President can put you into "presumptive frontrunner" status.

              Christie would have to run in 16, then get the nomination in 2020 after Jeb loses the general.  Since Christie will be a couple years removed from the state house at that point, he would have time to distance himself from his bipartisany stances and 2012 will be a distant memory.

              There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

              by slothlax on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 05:34:47 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  A couple more that fit the pattern: (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                slothlax

                Ryan, who was the good soldier in a losing cause and maybe has just the right amount of crazy to please the Tea Party without terrifying the few remaining rational Republicans.

                Santorum, who was the only one who really gave Mitt much of a run in the primary (please, please, please).

                •  Ryan is a good one (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Andrew F Cockburn

                  I should have thought of that.  I kind of already dismissed Santorum earlier, he was barely credible in a year where Mitt Romney was the frontrunner and by 2016 it'll be ten years since he held elective office.  But a boy can hope, can't he?  The danger is that whoever is the nominee always has at least a chance of winning.

                  There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

                  by slothlax on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 07:24:07 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

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