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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/5 (380 comments)

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  •  Indeed (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

    Though I think most Republicans will continue clinging to their purist ideals. The wheels are only now just begining to turn, but they risk losing out on entire generation of voters. As they view the loss evangelical, christian conservative as more potent than a potential gain among moderates, independents, and the youth.
    There is still a decent majority of Republicans that are opposed to gay marriage.

    http://westdesmoines.patch.com/...

    In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

    by lordpet8 on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 01:32:40 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  It's a race... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy, lordpet8

      As to whether Brazil or the United States legalizes gay marriage nationwide first. And if Brazil beats us, that's embarrassing. If Mexico beats us, that's really embarrassing.

      Also in a race with Brazil to see whether they elect an Afro-Brazilian president first or we elect a female president first. They broke the gender barrier and we broke the race barrier.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 07:36:51 PM PST

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      •  I'm almost certain (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY

        both Brazil and Mexico will beat us nationally.  Short of the Supreme Court enacting it nationwide, I don't think we'll have a congressional majority willing to push it for 20 years at least.  The best case short-term scenario I see happening is the overturn of DOMA, and many more states legalizing it, but individual states like Alabama and Utah will be left able to keep it illegal within their borders for decades.

        •  I doubt this... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, MichaelNY, jncca
          but individual states like Alabama and Utah will be left able to keep it illegal within their borders for decades.
          Loving v. Virginia, Brown v. Board, and Lawrence v. Texas, among other Supreme Court decisions, all suggest that gay marriage bans will be struck down as unconstitutional when such bans are still on the books in many states. Majority support is imminent on a national level, if it's not already here, and the legal logic is close to irrefutable (if not quite Scalia-proof).
          •  I hope you are right (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, okiedem
            •  If it is found illegal it will almost certainly be (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              on 14th amendment equal protection grounds and would therefore overrule any state law making gay marriage legal everywhere.

              I really doubt that the current court would make such a ruling however so I think that this is going to be a long slog with most states making gay marriage legal over the next 5-10 years but with a few holdouts not making it legal for decades to come.

              26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 09:17:32 PM PST

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              •  Actually it could also be on 14th amendment (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                substantive due process grounds but the effect would be the same and gay marriage would be made legal everywhere as a result.

                26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                by okiedem on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 09:20:43 PM PST

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                •  Are you talking about the California case (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Skaje, okiedem

                  or just in general? My guess has been that the SC strikes down DOMA, and also Prop 8 but in a way that only would apply to California. That opinion, though, is based on the zero legal knowledge I possess, plus a hunch.

                  I actually think we're maybe 5-10 years from the court legalizing gay marriage everywhere (and by ten years from now, we're not really talking about "the present court" anyway).

                  •  I haven't read the brief but it's very difficult (0+ / 0-)

                    to imagine a narrow ruling. The only grounds I can imagine for the court to overturn the ban would be 14th amendment grounds which would necessarily overturn all such bans nationwide.

                    Because that's the only way to strike down the CA law (and probably DOMA as well) I find it very hard to believe that we'll get a favorable ruling out of this court.

                    26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                    by okiedem on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 11:31:16 PM PST

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      •  Mexico already has (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Chachy, MichaelNY

        effectively/de facto.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 08:06:02 PM PST

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      •  Also (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Brazil does not repeat: not conceptualize race the way that we do. In fact, almost all Latin American counties have wholly different notions of race. The big exception: Cuba.

        See chapter 2 of Shades of Difference edited by Evelyn Glenn.

        http://www.amazon.com/...

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 08:07:26 PM PST

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      •  I thought Brazil had already had a mulatto (0+ / 0-)

        president in the 19th century. What do you mean by "Afro-Brazilian"?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 09:46:15 PM PST

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        •  Self-identifying as black. (0+ / 0-)

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 10:10:40 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That category (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            In Brazilian culture is so fluid that it is made virtually meaningless.

            Yes, there are people who self-identify as black, but many others would consider them mulatto or white or some other shade in between.

            But there are also people who do not, but are considered by many people in Brazil to be black.

            It's a continuous and never ending process of social situations, context, and bargaining that determines what your skin color is at any different moment. You could literally be black in one context, but white in another in Brazil.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 10:20:26 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

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