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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/5 (380 comments)

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  •  probably (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

    The GOP may be able to flip 2 net seats in the assembly in 2014, with the best targets AD36 in northern LA county that Dems won by 0.2, AD32 in the Bakersfield area (5.8) where Dem turnout usually tanks in midterms, and AD65 in Orange county (4.0). They also have to hold AD40 (GOP won by 0.8) and AD60 (3.6), but that should normally be easier in a midterm. That said, they would probably lose all but maybe 60 in 2016, as all those areas are trending blue.

    GOP turnout may be down more than usual in 2014, as for the first time in probably 100 years the governor's race looks completely hopeless for them. (1978 and 1998 turned out to be Dem blowouts, but they seemed like they would be competitive at the time.)

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 02:38:03 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

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