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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/5 (380 comments)

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  •  I'm almost certain (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY

    both Brazil and Mexico will beat us nationally.  Short of the Supreme Court enacting it nationwide, I don't think we'll have a congressional majority willing to push it for 20 years at least.  The best case short-term scenario I see happening is the overturn of DOMA, and many more states legalizing it, but individual states like Alabama and Utah will be left able to keep it illegal within their borders for decades.

    •  I doubt this... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, MichaelNY, jncca
      but individual states like Alabama and Utah will be left able to keep it illegal within their borders for decades.
      Loving v. Virginia, Brown v. Board, and Lawrence v. Texas, among other Supreme Court decisions, all suggest that gay marriage bans will be struck down as unconstitutional when such bans are still on the books in many states. Majority support is imminent on a national level, if it's not already here, and the legal logic is close to irrefutable (if not quite Scalia-proof).
      •  I hope you are right (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, okiedem
        •  If it is found illegal it will almost certainly be (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          on 14th amendment equal protection grounds and would therefore overrule any state law making gay marriage legal everywhere.

          I really doubt that the current court would make such a ruling however so I think that this is going to be a long slog with most states making gay marriage legal over the next 5-10 years but with a few holdouts not making it legal for decades to come.

          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 09:17:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Actually it could also be on 14th amendment (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            substantive due process grounds but the effect would be the same and gay marriage would be made legal everywhere as a result.

            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 09:20:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Are you talking about the California case (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Skaje, okiedem

              or just in general? My guess has been that the SC strikes down DOMA, and also Prop 8 but in a way that only would apply to California. That opinion, though, is based on the zero legal knowledge I possess, plus a hunch.

              I actually think we're maybe 5-10 years from the court legalizing gay marriage everywhere (and by ten years from now, we're not really talking about "the present court" anyway).

              •  I haven't read the brief but it's very difficult (0+ / 0-)

                to imagine a narrow ruling. The only grounds I can imagine for the court to overturn the ban would be 14th amendment grounds which would necessarily overturn all such bans nationwide.

                Because that's the only way to strike down the CA law (and probably DOMA as well) I find it very hard to believe that we'll get a favorable ruling out of this court.

                26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                by okiedem on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 11:31:16 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

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