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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/8 (234 comments)

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  •  I guess GradyDem could tell us (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, atdnext, MichaelNY

    since he's from AL-02 originally.  But there's less of Montgomery County so it probably would be more of a climb for Bright than under old lines.

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 08, 2013 at 06:29:14 AM PST

    •  That's what I would think (5+ / 0-)

      But I remember GradyDem and I were greatly at odds about this district in 2010.  I thought Bright would lose badly and he thought he would win.  Even though Roby pulled it out 50-49, I think Grady's numerical prediction was a lot closer.  Bright was a tough cat to knock off, in any other year besides 2010 he would've won.

      26, OH-16, fiscal moderate, foreign policy liberal, social libertarian 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em Champion

      by StephenCLE on Fri Feb 08, 2013 at 07:15:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hahah (1+ / 0-)
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        Yeah, I remember that.

        The one thing about Southern incumbent Democrats - They start off up by 20 to 30 points and then as the Republican begins to campaign and tests the "conservatism" of the Democrat, the Democrat's lead rapidly evaporates. It happened in MS Leg 2011, AR Leg 2012, and Gene Taylor and Bobby Bright's elections.

        If the election had been held three weeks earlier, Bright would have won.

    •  If Bright had run again (7+ / 0-)

      I think it's a tossup as to whether he could have won.  He might have benefited from higher African American turnout from the presidential election, but to my knowledge Roby hasn't done anything particularly offensive (at least for that conservative district).

      I think Bright was mentioned as a potential statewide candidate in Roll Call's Alabama writeup.  Not a bad idea if he wants to run; the Alabama Democratic bench isn't too strong right now and he's been able to win or at least run competitively in partisan-unfriendly territory.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Feb 08, 2013 at 08:36:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The AL Dem Bench is a Ghost town (1+ / 0-)
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        There's no one who could win a statewide race except former Gov and Lt Gov Bill Folsom.  Lucy Baxley has the second best profile for a Dem (she was a longtime statewide election winner, winning many different races over the years) and she got defeated rather easily by Twinkle Cavanaugh, who is not someone who is beloved by the GOP in AL.

    •  Bright was one of the biggest, (5+ / 0-)

      If not outright biggest, over-performers in 2010.

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      by David Nir on Fri Feb 08, 2013 at 10:44:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  AL-02 was drawn (1+ / 0-)
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      so Bright wouldn't run again. The Montgomery parts where he is most popular are no longer in AL-02. I don't think he's interested in running for office again, unfortunately.

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