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View Diary: Climate Change is Here, Now (55 comments)

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  •  Not quite. In fact you suggest the proof yourself (2+ / 0-)
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    marleycat, elwior
    years. Although it is unusual to have so many of  them happen in such a short span of time, it is very possible that it could have happened absent the changes brought on by a warmer planet.
    In fact while it is possible, it definitely is not very possible.  In fact, itis exceptionally unlikely that the natural variation alone could produce this pattern. We understand a good deal of the level of background variability on the annual scale and the odds of all this happening in a short time is quite small.  These exceptional events ought to be randomly distributed, more or less, across the record, but they are not at all.  They're very clumped in the current period.  This is like saying it could be natural variation that caused all those smokers to get lung cancer not smoking.  Some smoker do get lung cancer by chance alone, but the association between smoking and lung cancer is very unlikely to exist purely because of a fluke of chance.  Much more likely to have a causal link.   Similarly, we have both a credible mechanism for these events and a strong statistical association. Together, we can safely say that the rise in extreme weather events is proof of climate change because the "no change" null hypothesis is extremely unlikely to explain this pattern.  

    Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescendibles.

    by Mindful Nature on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:13:49 PM PST

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