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View Diary: Why DC barely saw snow, but 6 miles away they got buried. (73 comments)

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  •  The rain/snow line is always trouble in DC (6+ / 0-)

    It is folly to expect a model to be accurate down to increments of 10 miles. Models just aren't that precise.

    In this case the air was a lot warmer to the north of the storm than the models were forecasting. If cold dry air from the north had been pulled into the storm, the forecast would have been pretty good. You left out one point. Snow cools the air it falls through as it melts. It takes a lot of heat  out of the air to melt falling snow.

    I have noticed all winter that models would forecast temperatures a few degrees lower than they eventually turned out to be. I don't know why they are having this problem but it's pretty consistent.

    look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

    by FishOutofWater on Thu Mar 07, 2013 at 04:06:56 AM PST

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