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View Diary: Renters make good Democrats, and other demographic observations (129 comments)

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  •  I think it is very interesting... (5+ / 0-)

    and excellent statistical analysis...also tipped/rec'd.

    I wish there was a better correlation between incomes & voting behavior.

    As a member of Courtesy Kos, I am dedicated to civility and respect for all kossacks, regardless of their opinions, affiliations, or cliques.

    by joedemocrat on Sun Mar 17, 2013 at 02:30:46 PM PDT

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    •  I'm not sure that there IS a better indicator of (4+ / 0-)

      financial status/income than whether or not a person rents - with some corallary data on zip code and Median income & rental costs (to adjust for areas with significantly higher rent prices vs income, like NYC for instance).


      "I like paying taxes...with them, I buy Civilization" -- me

      by Angie in WA State on Sun Mar 17, 2013 at 02:54:45 PM PDT

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    •  Another aspect to be considered (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      grubber, CrissieP

      As a landlord (and lifelong democrat), I am quite interested in the renter data.  I am very much interested in expanding my business.  I live in a Red State.   If I can attract dems to my units, perhaps I can help turn red states blue.  Likewise, I would consider expanding my business to other red districts in other states so that I can more effectively attract democratic voters.

      The trick is to find overly blue districts with "excess" voters, who may want to spend an election cycle or two turning a red district blue.  With an excess of dem voters, this is a tactic that is more likely to be available to dems than to repubs, who have no voters to spare in the majority of districts.

      Rental laws are somewhat tricky in that I can not legally make a renters voting preference a criteria a deciding one in establishing, who I will rent to and frankly I never discriminate against anyone, since ultimately from a business perspective I must choose among those, who best able to pay and be stable renters.  Nonetheless, I do have latitude to better understand the market, since ultimately I want my residences (I rent homes not apartments) to provide stability and value to the neighborhoods in which they are found.  For numerous obvious and not so obvious  reasons, a blue neighborhood is far more favorable to my business than a red one.

      Any other landlords out there, who have similar inclinations?  If so, have you considered this and if so, what other thoughts might one add along these lines?  If any lawyers out there want to pipe in, I would be more than eager to hear your thoughts as well.  What are the differences in nuance from state to state.  

      In most red districts the margins of victory are only a few thousand votes, so that given the 10 year cycle for gerrymandering, this approach might well doom gerrymandering as a political tactic if one can build a sufficient number of like minded landlords (and tenants).

      That said, the r value for renters is particularly low and may not reflect statistical cause and effect or significant predictor value as a single co-variates alone.  This kind of analysis needs to be done not univariately for variable, but in a multiple regression or multi-block design context.  If one is interested in utilizing these statistics for predictive value, one needs to identify linear combinations of variables that are most important.  I strongly suggest that the author look seriously at discriminant functions analysis to identify those linear combinations of co-variates that provide the greatest discrimination.  

      Huitema (1980) provides a useful look at certain multivariate techniques surrounding covariance analysis that are well worth the look, especially for categorical variables such as those being dealt with here.  The author would do well to check this out, if he is not already familiar with these statistical techniques.

      In any event, great post.  Keep up the good work and help make the data more readily available so that we can mine it with the hope of striking blue.

    •  there is (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      joedemocrat, MichaelNY

      see here.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Mar 17, 2013 at 05:44:11 PM PDT

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