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View Diary: California House Races 2014 (67 comments)

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  •  Rohrabacher, Issa and Campbell (0+ / 0-)

    I know this might sound like heresy, but I think think there is a possibility that the OC GOP trio of Rohrabacher, Issa and Campbell could be challenged.  

    Heresy, because their top line election numbers still looked good last year and the history of GOP incumbents in the OC.

    But, consider the possibilities ...

    ROHRABACHER

    His number 1 issue - still - based on floor speeches is promoting nuclear energy, which is highly unpopular in OC at the moment with all the troubles with the San Onofre Nuclear plant.  Most of his district would be in the fall-out zone of a Fukisima style problem (San Onofre is the only other plant in the world that is considered a sister of Fukishima) and a candidate who made this a central platform issue could find traction.

    Along with this, he just voted against the VAWA despite passage in a district that includes left-leaning Hunting Beach, Laguna Beach and Costa Mesa.

    Third, Costa Mesa is one of OC's fastest growing communities driven by young, affluent college grads buying homes to work in OC.  

    His district has a strong-hold in Laguna Niguel, but this could be breached!

    CAMPBELL

    The welfare king of the House, the guy has basically passed 1 piece of legislation since 2006 and the cross tabs in his newly formed district went against him in 2012.  His vote margins have steadily decreased year over year and turn-out among D voters in his district is very lackluster.  The votes to usurp him on a campaign of how he has sat in Washington for almost a decade and done nothing to help his district are there if GOTV is good.  Additionally, his new district is more latino every day ...

    ISSA

    His district seems tailor-made to keep a GOPer in power, but it includes the previously-discussed San Onofre and his antics in the public spotlight the last two years could make him more vulnerable in a district that includes left-leaning Encinitas and Dana Point. It will be hard to unseat a congressman who has both San Clemente AND La Jolla in their district, but sometimes notoriety can be a weakness.

    •  doubtful (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      Romney won Issa's district by 7 and the other two by 12, and Dem turnout is likely to be down in a midterm. Dems might want to look for a serious candidate in Issa's district in 2016, but the other two would likely be out of reach even with a Jim Graves type. They ran a solid if underfunded candidate against Campbell in 2012, and he lost by 17.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Mar 18, 2013 at 11:00:45 AM PDT

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    •  Campbell faced Sukhee Kang (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wu ming, Gygaxian

      who was mayor of Irvine, and got 58% of the vote. That's not bad. Granted, Kang was hobbled by more competitive races around him sucking out all the Democratic oxygen from his campaign.

      Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa are not left-leaning. HB, along with Newport Beach, is libertarian (Rohrabacher is pro-pot) and very while Costa Mesa is swingy.

      Issa can be dislodged, but not with Jerry Tetalman.

      Rather than Campbell or Rohrabacher, I would work on defeating Ed Royce in CA-39.

      23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14.

      by kurykh on Mon Mar 18, 2013 at 11:02:19 AM PDT

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      •  I disagree (0+ / 0-)

        Humbly, of course.

        Kang - while a great candidate on paper - ran a lackluster campaign.  His website didn't work most of the time, he spent little time beating the streets, his campaign events were dull affairs.  

        Kang seemed to be banking on his reputation and support from the Asian American community, while failing to promote out-reach to the latino community that became a huge part of Campbell's district in the redistricting.

        A look at the cross tabs from Campbell / Kang, I think it's obvious that there was an incredible number of potential D votes left on the table by a campaign that seemed defeatist or uninterested (no offense to any Kang fans.)

        I agree with most of what you said above in your analysis of the various towns in OC, but the cycle-over-cycle margins by which these guys are winning is heading in the D favor.  There are issues in OC that can be leveraged and while I agree that "down year = low democrat" as a rule, there is the chance to catch Repubs off-guard in a cycle year where they think this thing is in the bag.

        •  You're right in that OC is definitely trending Dem (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Alibguy

          But I do have to say these three, especially Campbell and Rohrabacher, most likely won't fall within this decade. Issa might, but he's loaded and there's no Democratic bench in his district. I would say focus on Royce first, since he's the most vulnerable of the OC GOPers.

          23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14.

          by kurykh on Mon Mar 18, 2013 at 12:50:05 PM PDT

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    •  McKeon and Royce (0+ / 0-)

      will fall before Rohrabacher, Issa, or Campbell do.

      •  I disagree regarding Royce (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        While the demos of Norther OC are changing quite quickly, Royce seems to be have a popularity about him that transends political party.  They only way I see him not being a congressman is if he decides to retire, or if he gets caught up in a big scandal.

        I have high hopes for replacing McKeon though.

        I believe the order in which those Socal districts will fall is:

        Royce (not running or big scandal)
        McKeon
        Issa
        Royce (running)
        Campbell
        Rohrabacher

        Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

        by Ryan Dack on Tue Mar 19, 2013 at 09:35:37 AM PDT

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