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View Diary: California House Races 2014 (67 comments)

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  •  Campbell faced Sukhee Kang (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wu ming, Gygaxian

    who was mayor of Irvine, and got 58% of the vote. That's not bad. Granted, Kang was hobbled by more competitive races around him sucking out all the Democratic oxygen from his campaign.

    Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa are not left-leaning. HB, along with Newport Beach, is libertarian (Rohrabacher is pro-pot) and very while Costa Mesa is swingy.

    Issa can be dislodged, but not with Jerry Tetalman.

    Rather than Campbell or Rohrabacher, I would work on defeating Ed Royce in CA-39.

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14.

    by kurykh on Mon Mar 18, 2013 at 11:02:19 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  I disagree (0+ / 0-)

      Humbly, of course.

      Kang - while a great candidate on paper - ran a lackluster campaign.  His website didn't work most of the time, he spent little time beating the streets, his campaign events were dull affairs.  

      Kang seemed to be banking on his reputation and support from the Asian American community, while failing to promote out-reach to the latino community that became a huge part of Campbell's district in the redistricting.

      A look at the cross tabs from Campbell / Kang, I think it's obvious that there was an incredible number of potential D votes left on the table by a campaign that seemed defeatist or uninterested (no offense to any Kang fans.)

      I agree with most of what you said above in your analysis of the various towns in OC, but the cycle-over-cycle margins by which these guys are winning is heading in the D favor.  There are issues in OC that can be leveraged and while I agree that "down year = low democrat" as a rule, there is the chance to catch Repubs off-guard in a cycle year where they think this thing is in the bag.

      •  You're right in that OC is definitely trending Dem (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Alibguy

        But I do have to say these three, especially Campbell and Rohrabacher, most likely won't fall within this decade. Issa might, but he's loaded and there's no Democratic bench in his district. I would say focus on Royce first, since he's the most vulnerable of the OC GOPers.

        23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14.

        by kurykh on Mon Mar 18, 2013 at 12:50:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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