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View Diary: California House Races 2014 (67 comments)

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  •  obama won stanislaus county in '08 and '12 (0+ / 0-)

    just as he did in san joaquin, merced and fresno counties. dems have been steadily picking up voter registration numbers up and down the valley, with the exception of shasta county which has been filling up with white retirees, more in line with the foothills. those new voters in the valley aren't valleycrats; if they were, obama wouldn't be picking up their votes

    kerry lost all four counties in 2004, by about 8-10%. gore lost them in 2000 by about the same margins. bill clinton lost fresno and merced but narrowly won stanislaus and san joaquin counties in 1996, but was given an assist by ross perot pulling high single digit support and splitting the conservative vote (perot also pulled votes from the left in other parts of the state, but in the valley he was assuredly drawing on libertarians and conservatives).

    so something big shifted in 2008, and held steady or increased slightly in 2012. we see it in the new seats dems picked up, in the valley and the inland empire, as well as in the seats they came closer than expected in. that's not speculation, that's data.

    it's not a matter of whether the valley will shift, it has shifted and is shifting today, even in stanislaus county. while the timing of when a given district will hit its tipping point is no doubt heavily dependent upon organizing, GOTV, and recruiting good candidates, the trend in the valley, as in the inland empire and suburban socal, is unmistakable.

    the reason for that shift, in part if not in whole, is demographics.

    •  Stanislaus (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, wu ming

      Stanislaus county is trending blue faster than any other county in the state except Imperial and Merced. It's tied with San Joaquin. Comparing 2004 to 2012, neither of which were wave elections:

      Imperial: Kerry won by 6, Obama by 32, net 26D
      Merced: Bush won by 14, Obama by 9, net 23D
      Stanislaus: Bush won by 18, Obama by 3, net 21D
      San Joaquin: Bush won by 7, Obama by 14, net 21D

      In terms of PVI Imperial has shifted 9.9 points to the Dems, Merced 8.4, Stanislaus and San Joaquin 7.4. For the record, here are the other counties that have shifted 5 or more points to the Dems: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Riverside, Sacramento, San Berdoo, Sutter, Tulare, Yuba. All inland, mostly downscale, heavily Hispanic in most cases.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Mar 19, 2013 at 09:21:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yup (0+ / 0-)

        i think part of the problem is sorting out the difference between wave elections - which 2008 was, at the national level - and long term demographic shifts like what is going on in california right now. there's this assumption that well, 2008 was a fluke and people will swing back in another cycle or two, but this isn't being driven by people swinging between parties, this is a huge demographic and ideological shift related very much to generational replacement.

        people aren't going to recognize the valley, politically, in a decade or so.

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