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View Diary: Mayoral Malarkey: A Guide to the Big City Mayor Races of 2013 (103 comments)

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  •  The race is evolving too quickly to say (1+ / 0-)
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    Darth Jeff

    It may very well have been his to lose against Ravenstahl, and he probably still does have a small lead in this race (although I've gotten the impression that citywide polling is notoriously bad during the fairly short time I've followed Pgh politics).  However, I think the conventional wisdom is that Jack Wagner has the momentum.  He's collecting a lot of endorsements, including several citywide unions and state lawmakers, and he will probably get most of the Harris voters.  Some of the Peduto narrative requires believing that he will draw most of the East End vote just because he is the only candidate from that part of the city, which I'm not sure I buy.  

    You could probably ask the GOP candidate yourself...he is personally active on social media and leaves all kinds of comments on Post-Gazette articles.  

    •  I went through and updated the race profile (0+ / 0-)

      The local media agrees with a lot of what you said and I've changed the post to reflect recent developments.  Peduto still looks like the favorite but Wagner looks a bit stronger than he did on Tuesday.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 12:17:31 AM PDT

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      •  Your update looks spot on (1+ / 0-)
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        Darth Jeff

        As I alluded to above I haven't lived in Pgh long enough to consider myself an expert on the local politics but I've followed both the race and the events that have shaped it enough to feel like I have a decent sense of it.  I think Peduto still has the highest chance of winning especially if all of the remaining minor candidates hang in until the primary, but a Wagner win would not surprise me.  

        •  Looks like that's the emerging conventional wisdom (0+ / 0-)

          No one seems particularly bullish on Lamb.

          23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

          by Jeff Singer on Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 11:33:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Lamb never really got going (1+ / 0-)
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            Darth Jeff

            He was endorsed by the local party (by default, since only he and Ravenstahl sought their endorsement by their deadline) and then the party chair stepped down so that he personally could endorse Peduto.  Even though he's been elected citywide before, he doesn't seem to have that much name recognition either.  

          •  Update 4/1 (1+ / 0-)
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            Darth Jeff

            Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is reporting this afternoon that Lamb will drop out.  It really is basically going to be Peduto vs. Wagner.  

            •  Thanks for letting me know! (0+ / 0-)

              I'll update the diary accordingly.  Do you agree this probably gives Wagner a boost?

              23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

              by Jeff Singer on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 10:40:21 AM PDT

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              •  I'm just going to wait until its official first (0+ / 0-)

                Just in case it turns out the campaign has some weird April Fools Day joke or something.  

                Btw this is hilarious.  This is either a very funny April Fools Joke or this mayoral race is a lot more violent than I thought:

                Michael Lamb will announce Monday his plans to quit the Pittsburgh’s Democratic mayoral primary. A source close to the City Controller cited his embarrassing performance Saturday night in a brawl outside the White Eagle Inn on Carson St.

                “Mike thought he had a strong base on the southside, that he could count on voters’ support down there,” said the source. “But to his dismay he heard most of them cheering for Jack [Wagner].”

                The two entered the establishment around 10:45pm on Saturday. A police report said the incident started over the use of a pool table and escalated from there.

                23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

                by Jeff Singer on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 10:44:08 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I'm sure you saw (1+ / 0-)
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                  Darth Jeff

                  the cross-post on the Live Digest but PoliticsPA has been posting some really funny stuff today that is even funnier if you're familiar with Pennsylvania and its politics.  In all seriousness, there have been some rumblings in the local media in the past few days about how Lamb dropped the ball as City Controller during the whole business with the police department that has now led to the federal investigation, and that may have been a contributing factor.  

                  I think this does help Wagner, because Peduto has a ceiling, and probably doesn't get to a plurality without at least two other decent candidates splitting the non-Peduto vote.  Wheatley may be the X-factor at this point, because he has barely campaigned at all, and has probably no shot of winning, but is familiar to at least part of the city and may do well in a couple of neighborhoods.  

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