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View Diary: Marriage equality in front of Supreme Court for second day (63 comments)

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  •  Not so. (1+ / 0-)
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    Montreal Progressive
    [A]gree with appeals court's narrow rejection of California's law 5-4, or punt on standing (equivalent effect)...
    No, those outcomes would not have an equivalent effect. Affirming the Ninth Circuit's decision would impose a "no take-backs" rule on every state in the nation, which would matter plenty to places like Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, and Illinois. (The notion that the appellate court's ruling was "California only" is false.)

    By contrast, throwing the case out on standing grounds would, at best, leave Judge Walker's district court decision intact, invalidating Prop 8 alone. (I'm skeptical that a Supreme Court decision on standing would even leave that much alive, but conventional pundit wisdom is heavily against me on this.) It would thus represent nothing but potentially persuasive precedent for courts in other states.

    •  That's a very clever observation. (1+ / 0-)
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      I didn't think of the general applicability of the "no take-backs" rule in case the 9th Circuit's decision is affirmed.

      Seek not that the things which happen should happen as you wish; but wish the things which happen to be as they are, and you will have a tranquil flow of life.

      by Montreal Progressive on Wed Mar 27, 2013 at 10:41:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Take backs in those states are not going to happen (0+ / 0-)

        regardless of the court's decision. That's a political reality.

        •  I don't think (0+ / 0-)

          that that's self-evident at all. In Iowa, especially, it's not hard to imagine something like an anti-gay constitutional amendment passing, presumably in an off-year election. Those Huckabee and Santorum voters have not ceased to exist.

        •  Note, for example, (0+ / 0-)

          Nate Silver's projections on level of support for gay marriage in ballot amendments over time.

          He's projecting that 46.5% of Iowans would have voted in favor of marriage equality in 2012, and 52.8% in 2016. That's not exactly rock-solid "political reality" support that we can all rely on, especially in an off-year election like 2014.

          In short, the demographic evidence paints a picture that's somewhat contrary to your smug confidence.

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