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View Diary: The real, but unknowable, path to a Democratic House majority (183 comments)

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  •  Well, Mia Love has filed to run in 2014 (4+ / 0-)

    And she's the best candidate the Republicans can get (though still not as good a campaigner as Matheson is), so I would call him at least slightly vulnerable at this point.

    I predict Matheson will win, and will win at a slightly higher margin than in 2012, but it's still going to be close.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sun Mar 31, 2013 at 11:18:40 AM PDT

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    •  I don't think Love will have a (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Theodore J Pickle

      clear shot though. There are plenty of abrasive, radical conservative politicians with national ambitions in this district, and not all of them were happy that they were pushed aside last time.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Sun Mar 31, 2013 at 12:31:17 PM PDT

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      •  That's true, but (0+ / 0-)

        I don't think any of them will be able to match Love's fundraising ability and relative charisma. And the Republican obsession with having black conservatives is strong, especially in Utah, where we don't want to face our own negative attitudes and history towards black people.

        Lastly, the contenders against Love have largely proven incompetent, with most falling by the wayside, and one (Carl Wimmer) having a ridiculous saga of pretending to move to Nevada to take over their GOP chairmanship, while all the while staying put in Utah.

        The only 2012 contender that I could see putting up a fight is Stephen Sandstrom, and that's only because he's flipped-flopped so hard on immigration nobody knows how to confront him on it (he was the original legislative sponsor of Utah's copy of the Arizona immigration law).

        Though I could see a few legislators trying their luck against Mia Love; Aaron Osmond (yes, we have an Osmond in the state senate), Deidre Henderson (a young female rising star, just like Love but white), or even my state rep Ken Ivory (He's young, popular, and I am still convinced he wants higher office).

        But in any case, it's Mia Love's nomination to lose.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Sun Mar 31, 2013 at 06:32:42 PM PDT

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