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View Diary: The real, but unknowable, path to a Democratic House majority (183 comments)

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  •  Dems have a much better chance to take back (7+ / 0-)

    the House than people realize.  We also have a fairly higher risk of losing the Senate than most realize.

    The difference for 2014 is that Democrats will be able to put more money into several districts because there is no Presidential race to compete for dollars.

    If Democrats recruit good candidates, they can win anywhere.  The divide on social issues has become clearer and has tilted in the Dems favor.  The divide on economic issues has also tilted in the Dems favor.  The GOP didn't think it would pay a price for the 2011 default and then came the 2012 elections, which have already become a watershed historically.  The GOP also didn't think anyone would care about the sequester.  They'll find it hard to defend next year.  I see us returning to an 'all politics is local' mode and an end to the ideological wars.  The GOP has lost their own manufactured 'culture war' and will lose the gun issue as well.  They are also losing currency on the debt problem issue, because it isn't in fact a problem.

    If I were Democrats, I would find a way to push more credit to small business. The one persistent complaint I hear from my GOP and libertarian friends, ironically, is that government didn't do enough to help them get access to credit.  

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Sun Mar 31, 2013 at 11:22:09 AM PDT

    •  Never going to happen (Don't shoot the messenger) (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      paradise50, Panbanisha, gabjoh, JanL

      I'm sorry, but that ship has sailed. President Clinton wrote in "My Life" that the backlash from first Assault Weapons Ban contributed to the Republican takeover of the House and the Senate in the 1994 mid-term elections. In the House, 52 Democrats who supported Clinton's gun control measures were defeated, including Speaker Tom Foley.

      And that is what will happen again. Democratic control of the Senate will be lost in 2014, and we will be lucky to loose only 25 seats in the House.

      Don't shoot the messenger.

      I live in rural Kansas, and before that, Wyoming (it's all rural) and before that, rural Colorado. I know Democrats in every rural plains, southern, and mountain state and folks I'm telling you, the cost of the gun control debate to the Democratic Party in rural states will be felt for generations. I'm talking 50-years.

      I know. You don't want to hear this.

      Harry Reid will do everything he can to save the Senate. But he has 6 or 7 Senators from western and southern states whose residents are absolutely furious over this. (Yes, there are a couple of sham polls out there that state, "90% of rural Americans support "the concept" of a universal background check,' but add permanent record keeping of sales into the question and that number drops to under 10%.)

      At every level, from school boards and county commissioners, to state representatives, rural Democrats will become extinct over this.

      It is what it is. Believe me now, or believe me when absolutely zero signed legislation comes out of this debate, and everything I said would happen, happens.

       

      •  ...I'm from Colorado myself... (2+ / 0-)

        ...and what you say is true about rural areas, and it's not just in Western States. A distinction, though, exists between a "typical rural person" who likes guns but isn't nuts AND those that have performed the massacres recently.

        In the 1970's 50% of all households had guns...now that has dropped to 34% of all households having guns.
        BUT there are millions more guns out there now than in the 1970's.

        This means there are serious gun fanatics buying guns and ammo at the same time the overall trend has been for fewer households having guns.

        This really does speak to the dangerous situation currently taking place. An ever more gun crazy vocal group has totally taken over the gun debate...and they've gone farther and farther to the right on this issue. A smaller percentage of people have guns, but there are a larger number of people that do own guns who are building up huge arsenals. Why do they really do this? Fear is the only answer. What do they really feel they are preparing for? A civil war or a war against the government or a war against those they disagree with. If you are building up ginmormous arsenals of guns and ammo...when will you "pull the trigger?"

        What could go wrong?

        Welcome from the DK Partners & Mentors Team. If you have any questions about how to participate here, you can learn more at the Knowledge Base or from the New Diarists Resources Diaries. Diaries labeled "Open Thread" are also great places to ask. We look forward to your contributions.

        Ignorance is bliss only for the ignorant. The rest of us must suffer the consequences.

        by paradise50 on Sun Mar 31, 2013 at 12:21:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I should write my first diary about that.. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          Paradise50 wrote, "What do they really feel they are preparing for? A civil war or a war against the government or a war against those they disagree with. If you are building up ginormous arsenals of guns and ammo...when will you "pull the trigger?" What could go wrong?"

          Yep. I know. I should write my first diary about the enormous danger in "getting our wish" on gun control. But it would be so horrifying to the DK readership (truthful, but horrifying) I would probably be banned.

      •  That vote has already been tapped out (0+ / 0-)

        by the GOP.  There are more votes to be had among those who have a less hostile view to gun control.  It won't affect the Senate races.  I could see it having an impact in House races, but that's where getting a candidate to fit the district.

        Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

        by khyber900 on Sun Mar 31, 2013 at 07:47:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  OK, let's say that Rs lose on gays and guns (3+ / 0-)

      and even God outside the Reddest districts where that part of their base is concentrated. Now, what policies do they offer to anybody else other than the rich and Too Evil To Fail business?

      Crickets.

      So what are they going to win on?

      Beats me.

      What are they actually working on?

      More abortion restrictions.

      More laws against Shari'a.

      More anti-Gay-Marriage laws and amendments.

      More tax cuts.

      More repeals of ObamaCare.

      More Republican-bashing, from Republicans.

      Good luck with all that.

      Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

      by Mokurai on Sun Mar 31, 2013 at 12:43:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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