Skip to main content

View Diary: The real, but unknowable, path to a Democratic House majority (183 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  It is difficult, but it is possible. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    not2plato, Adam B

    The times are changing and now the Republicans have a lot harder time winning in D+ districts and the Democrats have a lot harder time winning in R+5+ district.

    Now the Democrats have 5 R+5+ districts, and the Republicans have 5 D+ districts. We can think that this tie would be reasonable after the 2014 elections. Maybe 2 for 2 as example.

    From this basis of a tie out of this range (that is a little conservative), we can look at the range of seats between EVEN and R+5 where will be the key for a future majority.

    These are the percentages of the current seats that the Democratic party hold after the 2012 elections:

    62.50% of the EVEN seats 5/8
    50.00% of the R+1 seats 5/10
    06.25% of the R+2 seats 1/16 (including NY-02)
    33.33% of the R+3 seats 3/9
    07.14% of the R+4 seats 1/14
    00.00% of the R+5 seats 0/9

    But looking at the results after the 2008 elections we see that then the Democratic Party hold:

    44.44% of the EVEN seats 4/9
    70.00% of the R+1 seats 7/10
    71.43% of the R+2 seats 10/14
    36.36% of the R+3 seats 4/11
    50.00% of the R+4 seats 5/10
    57.14% of the R+5 seats 8/14

    Traslating these percentages to the current number of districts with every rating we would have:

    44.44% means 3.56 -> 4/8 EVEN seats
    70.00% means 7.00 -> 7/10 R+1 seats
    71.43% means 11.43 -> 11/14 R+2 seats
    36.36% means 3.27 -> 3/9 R+3 seats
    50.00% means 7.00 -> 7/14 R+4 seats
    57.14% means 5.14 -> 5/9 R+5 seats

    With the level of vote of 2008 in the range of seats between EVEN and R+5 the Democratic party would gain 22 seats.

    That would drive to a potential majority of 223 seats, and maybe someone more from the R+5+ seats.

    For a Democratic majority is necessary a good year, but not as good as 2008. The Republicans can not feel totally safe with their current majority. To win a 51.8/52.2% of the overall vote for the US House surely would be enough for a new blue majority.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site