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View Diary: The real, but unknowable, path to a Democratic House majority (183 comments)

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  •  No, your first statement is completely wrong (0+ / 0-)

    If what you said was true there, then there would be a consistent pattern of Democrats doing worse in midterms than in Presidentials.

    But there isn't.  There's no such pattern at all.

    It's obvious that whatever affects our fortunes, the turnout disparity isn't it, except perhaps in some localized situations in a few individual districts.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sun Mar 31, 2013 at 08:58:14 PM PDT

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    •  It seems fairly consistent, actually, (1+ / 0-)
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      but i could have been more clear.  Overall turnout is down in midterms, mostly because fewer elections are competitive.  Republicans have fewer sporadics than Democrats, but it's at the margin.  Many Democratic sporadic voters aren't even registered in their current districts.  It's not easily controlled for, however, because each election presents its own variations; including from time to time, republican low turnout.  I will tell you that Pennsylvania statewide races depend almost entirely on whether Philadelphia turns out, and the vote numbers from Iowa in 2008 to 2010 to 2012 (representative of the party's fortunes in the midwest), show a much larger drop-off in Democratic voting and then an uptick, proportionately, than Republican.  There was some cross-over from Obama to Branstad and back, but not overwhelmingly so. If you've ever worked in politics, it's no secret that we have a whole class of voters we have to work harder for than Republicans do.  Not every mid-term race, without the Presidential umbrella, has the resources to do so, in terms of volunteer manpower, primarily.    

      Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult.

      by Loge on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 06:22:02 AM PDT

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