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View Diary: Yes, There IS a Knowable Path to a House Majority: Redraw the Lines. Here's How You Can Help! (25 comments)

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  •  None of your proposed AR districts (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chas 981

    are Obama districts though. None even came close. Republicans could (and in a year like 2012, probably would) easily win all four of your proposed districts. There's no point in comparing the districts to the state, since even a district that was 10 points to the left of the state would be lean D at best. The most Democratic of your proposed districts was R+7, and I don't think Arkansas has an equivalent of Jim Matheson or Mike McIntyre who can hold down districts like that (unless Mike Beebe runs, which I doubt).

    It seems to me that Democrats can either have zero districts or one district in Arkansas. If you think that Dems can have two, then please show me a map of Arkansas with two Obama districts. Even with gerrymandering, I don't think it's possible.

    P.S. About PA, VA, and NC, is there any way to create an initiative system like the ones that exist in other states?

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 04:02:12 PM PDT

    •  This was supposed to be (0+ / 0-)

      a response to Stephen Wolf.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 04:03:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Arkansas has a lot of local Dem strength (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, Skaje

      The seat would still Lean R, but especially in an open seat we could still take it.  There's still a strong Blue Dog tradition in AR, KY, and WV.  For how much longer, we'll see.
      And at any rate, it can't hurt to try.  We already have zero seats.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 04:04:32 PM PDT

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      •  The Blue Dog tradition (0+ / 0-)

        may still exist at the state level, but at the national level, with the exception of Mark Pryor, it's gone. None of the Democratic congressional candidates last year overperformed Obama by much, and I think at least one actually underperformed Obama.

        (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

        by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 04:41:09 PM PDT

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        •  Well thats because they weren't serious candidates (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          Jeffress ran a 19th century campaign, Herb Rule was a liberal former state rep, and Ellington was a small time county prosecutor who had no money.

          Just ask GradyDem; there are plenty of much stronger candidates who could have run and almost certainly would have with a 2-2 map.

          Ultimately though, I just don't see the value in sacrificing one district to make the other one just 4 points better. You're basically assuming that federal candidates are going to regularly start putting in Blanche Lincoln numbers when in reality nobody well funded would get blown out by 20 points statewide. Obama and Lincoln's numbers are basically the floor and not typical of what someone like Chad Causey got even in 2010.

          •  I think you're overestimating (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            thetadelta

            Democratic strength in Arkansas. Not only did Obama lose by >20 points both times, not only did Lincoln also lose by 20 points, not only do we now not have any Representatives there, but we even lost the state legislature last year, and in the State Senate it wasn't even close. What more has to happen in order for you to be convinced that Arkansas is a solidly Republican state? Does Pryor have to lose?

            I do think that federal candidates will, from now on, regularly do about as well as Blanche Lincoln did. After all, Obama did worse in 2012 than Lincoln in 2010. In the future, I doubt any Democratic presidential candidate not named Hillary Clinton will be able to break 40% in Arkansas.

            (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

            by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 05:34:30 PM PDT

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    •  solution for Arkansas: (0+ / 0-)

      draw a district that concentrates the African American populations in Pulaski County, Pine Bluff, and others.  You can get a district Obama won narrowly, and that locally is much more Democratic, and that'd give us one district where we have none now.

      And now that voting has become more racially polarized, the African American population probably should be concentrated into one district, as it may now be their only chance to elect someone who could represent them.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 09:56:39 PM PDT

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      •  This is basically (0+ / 0-)

        what I am suggesting, although the district could probably be drawn up to 55% Obama without much gerrymandering.

        (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

        by ProudNewEnglander on Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 07:15:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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