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View Diary: Yes, There IS a Knowable Path to a House Majority: Redraw the Lines. Here's How You Can Help! (25 comments)

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  •  Arkansas has a lot of local Dem strength (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Skaje

    The seat would still Lean R, but especially in an open seat we could still take it.  There's still a strong Blue Dog tradition in AR, KY, and WV.  For how much longer, we'll see.
    And at any rate, it can't hurt to try.  We already have zero seats.

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 04:04:32 PM PDT

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    •  The Blue Dog tradition (0+ / 0-)

      may still exist at the state level, but at the national level, with the exception of Mark Pryor, it's gone. None of the Democratic congressional candidates last year overperformed Obama by much, and I think at least one actually underperformed Obama.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 04:41:09 PM PDT

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      •  Well thats because they weren't serious candidates (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        Jeffress ran a 19th century campaign, Herb Rule was a liberal former state rep, and Ellington was a small time county prosecutor who had no money.

        Just ask GradyDem; there are plenty of much stronger candidates who could have run and almost certainly would have with a 2-2 map.

        Ultimately though, I just don't see the value in sacrificing one district to make the other one just 4 points better. You're basically assuming that federal candidates are going to regularly start putting in Blanche Lincoln numbers when in reality nobody well funded would get blown out by 20 points statewide. Obama and Lincoln's numbers are basically the floor and not typical of what someone like Chad Causey got even in 2010.

        •  I think you're overestimating (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          thetadelta

          Democratic strength in Arkansas. Not only did Obama lose by >20 points both times, not only did Lincoln also lose by 20 points, not only do we now not have any Representatives there, but we even lost the state legislature last year, and in the State Senate it wasn't even close. What more has to happen in order for you to be convinced that Arkansas is a solidly Republican state? Does Pryor have to lose?

          I do think that federal candidates will, from now on, regularly do about as well as Blanche Lincoln did. After all, Obama did worse in 2012 than Lincoln in 2010. In the future, I doubt any Democratic presidential candidate not named Hillary Clinton will be able to break 40% in Arkansas.

          (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

          by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 05:34:30 PM PDT

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