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View Diary: Did Gerrymandering Cost Dems the House? A 34-State Look at Alternative Nonpartisan Maps Suggests Yes (161 comments)

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  •  Love your TX-25 (1+ / 0-)
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    elwior

    Finally a swingy district that isn't the 23rd and is seemingly only going to get less red.

    I disagree in part with your WA commission complaints.  The only parts of that map I disagree with is that the 8th ought to have been a little bluer and the 1st ought to have been a district that Murray won in 2010 (as opposed to narrowly lost).  You did the 8th and 1st pretty good.  Can the 1st give up North Seattle for a bit more of Seattle suburbs as that is probably a more realistic proposal?

    "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 12:54:10 PM PDT

    •  You mean MY Texas 25 :P (1+ / 0-)
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      elwior

      JK. ;)

      Notice, though, how much of a plummet that Obama took here from 2008. IIRC he got around 54% or 55% in these lines in 2008, but I have to go back and check. Yes, long term the trend is Dem, but let's caution that with short term fluctuations as well.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 03:22:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think (0+ / 0-)

        That Stephen slightly tweaked the Austin area from my version, because from the looks of it Pflugerville is in the eastern district not the western district. Under my lines the district was only 50.2% Obama. Under these lines, I think, it would almost certainly be somewhere in the range of 53-55% given the specific areas that appear to be traded.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 03:28:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I didn't touch Austin, I changed some minor things (2+ / 0-)
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        wwmiv, elwior

        elsewhere IIRC but they weren't to anything that remotely mattered; I can't remember exactly. As I have it, Obama won just 52.2% two party there in 2008. You must have given me a different version than your most recent non-partisan map then if the lines are different in Travis County as I wouldn't know where to begin changing them. Obama did definitely fall a good amount though in that part of it, however I should caution that the 2012 results are estimated based on the proportion of his 2008 results that were in the district compared to the county at large, so they could be plus or minus a point I suppose.

        •  ah okay (0+ / 0-)

          That makes sense. I have so many maps that it could be any one of them and would take forever to figure out which.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 04:16:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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