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View Diary: Did Gerrymandering Cost Dems the House? A 34-State Look at Alternative Nonpartisan Maps Suggests Yes (161 comments)

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  •  Estimated based on county level data (1+ / 0-)
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    KingofSpades

    basically I assumed that Obama's 2008 vote total proportion in the district for that county was equal to his 2012 vote proportion in that county. Obviously imperfect, but not as prone to error as one might think. I took a look at most of the county and district level returns for 2012 that jeffmd posted and for the most part the proportions for the real districts were similar so I felt like this method worked well for hypothetical districts too as long as it was grounded in the 2008 precint and 2012 county returns. For Illinois however and a few other large counties and New England towns I used the actual precinct/town level returns. Generally whenever precinct redistricting didn't throw a wrench in it I used precinct returns for big counties. Otherwise the error is tiny, such as in Arkansas.

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