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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/15 (278 comments)

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  •  Frankly... (6+ / 0-)

    I think Tom Cotton is the most promising politician on my side of the aisle, and he's only 35-years-old. He's unbelievably bright, ultra focused, and has an unbelievable resume. He's truly a once-in-a-generation talent for Republicans, in my opinion.

    If he runs for Senate, I wonder if this race will get disproportionate amounts of attention from the DSCC and the DNC in an attempt to preemptively put out a rising star with meteoric potential. I personally see "President" written all over him. However, a loss to Pryor would, at least temporarily, likely halt his political career.

    If you were the DSCC, would you make priority #1 (other than holding the Senate for your side) defeating Tom Cotton as a preemptive measure?

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 11:35:38 AM PDT

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    •  No, because there are plenty of other 'bright' (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, Skaje, MichaelNY

      'impressive' Republicans who are from areas where their being popular actually matters in the general election. Plus when you have incumbents like Mark Begich who are a lot more of a reliable vote and much more liberal than Pryor, why would you make his reelection priority #1?

    •  He may just be another flash in the pan (7+ / 0-)

      His resume doesn't hold a candle to Jindal, but Jindal has already been written off and he isn't done being governor yet. There seems to be a lot of shiny new candidates Republicans lay out as their savior and every one of them has flopped in one way or another. I suspect Cotton with be forgotten  as a generic good-ol-boy Suth'n gentleman back bench congressman in a couple years anyways. Right now the Republican base is grasping at straws to find their savior and latching on to whatever they can find.

      •  Hmm... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY
        His resume doesn't hold a candle to [Jindal's]
        Cotton earned an A.B. and a J.D., both earned with high honors, from Harvard, he served as a Federal Appellate Court clerk, he worked as a corporate lawyer, he served in combat as an Army Captain between 2005-2009, he worked for McKinsey and Co. as a management consultant, and he was elected elected to Congress by the age of 35. That certainly than holds a candle to Bobby Jindal's resume at the age of 35 (two years before he was Governor of Louisiana).

        Jindal's been written off partially because of his lackluster performance giving the 2009 SOTU response, but also because of stuff like this: http://www.nola.com/...

        I don't think Cotton will have issues like that pop up.

        I suspect Cotton with be forgotten as a generic good-ol-boy Suth'n gentleman back bench congressman in a couple years anyways.
        He's way more capable than "generic good-ol-boy Suth'n gentleman back bench congressman," but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

        Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

        by IllinoyedR on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 12:08:34 PM PDT

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        •  Personally I think the country as whole (13+ / 0-)

          outside of the south is at the point where we're not ready for a conservative white Southern Republican man in the near future.  For a number of reasons.  If a Southerner is going to win the Republican primary, it will probably be one from a big state like Florida or Texas (the state every southern Republican president has been from.  All two of them).  Who are the likeliest presidential candidates from those two states?  Neither of them are white.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 12:13:55 PM PDT

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        •  Have you seen Jindal's resume? (13+ / 0-)

          -Graduated from Brown University with a double major in Biology and Public Policy and honors in both majors.
          -on the USA-Today All-USA Academic team in 1992.
          -Accepted to both Harvard Medical School and Yale Law School.
          -Rhodes Scholar.
          -Poli Sci M-Litt from Oxford University
          -Age 25 he's appointed Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals, overseeing 12,000 employees and 40% of the state's discretionary spending.
          -At age 28 he's appoint President of the University of Louisiana system, overseeing 80,000 students in the nation's 16th largest system of higher education.
          -at age 30 appointed an Assistant Secretary of Health and Human services by George Bush.
          -Elected to congress at age 34 after an unsuccessful run for Governor.

          I'm just saying. I'll make an argument any day for Jindal's general lack of charisma and incompetence as a politician and bad policy decisions based around a narrow-minded ideology, but his resume is more impressive than Cotton's by several degrees.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 12:22:00 PM PDT

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        •  It isn't just Jindal though (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, MichaelNY

          Ever since Bush's approval ratings started to fall in 2004, the Republicans haven't really had a rising star than panned out. Thune, Palin, Berg, Bondi, Jindal, Perry, Ryan, Love, Mourdock, and the list goes on. All of these people have been anointed "Republican rising star / savior" in he last decade, and are quickly forgotten and left for dead. I have seen nothing about Cotton that makes me nervous, as he is a skinnier version of Paul Ryan that is kind of boring to listen to with a hint of a nasally twang. And even though it isn't fair, the way a person articulates and comes off on camera and in audio makes a huge difference to their popularity and electoral prospects.

        •  Take out the Harvard name-bomb (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          and he seems like an accomplished but not-out-of-the-ordinary politician. What makes him particularly compelling? If you want to look at insane resumes, go read about some of the Supreme Court justices. Working as a manement consultant (albeit for a well-known firm) and an Army captain doesn't scream "once in a generation" to me.

          21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); Currently studying in Madrid, Spain

          by gigantomachyusa on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 02:53:21 PM PDT

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        •  Yes America is hungry for a corporate lawyer (4+ / 0-)

          And McKinsey consultants, they love those.

          And Harvard, yes Harvard, there aren't enough Harvard alumni on ballots across America.

          Your man-crush is on an obviously personally impressive guy, sure, but nothing there matters to voters.  Outside Arkansas, he's just another hard-right Southern white male wingnut, with no ability to play well in Loudoun or Prince William Counties if it's national office you picture him seeking.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 07:42:26 PM PDT

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    •  I'm not saying this just because (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I want Pryor to win, but if Cotton does have presidential ambitions, I wonder if running for governor would be better.

      It would definitely be the easier of the two races, and I think the road to the White House still goes through the governor's mansion. 2008, where the three top contenders for president were from the Senate, seems to be the exception.

      Of course, nothing says he cant win the WH from the Senate. Or it could be he just wants to be a senator.

      •  Being Governor of Arkansas (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        You have to remember that the Republican legislators in Arkansas aren't all that much more to the right, fiscally speaking, of their Democratic colleagues. Many are former Democrats (and I'm sure many have voted for Democrats running statewide in recent years). In all likelihood, it'll take more than a decade for enough "dyed-in-the-wool" conservatives to be elected to the legislature before the state legislature starts passing economic policy that would make national Republicans happy. Cotton would be stuck dealing with a legislature that's focused on social policy and would spend 4-8 years battling with fiscal liberals within his own caucus in the legislature.

        Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

        by IllinoyedR on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 12:29:33 PM PDT

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    •  He seems like a manchurian candidate (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IllinoyedR, Gygaxian, gigantomachyusa

      literally came out of nowhere. War hero. Harvard law degree (Warren was one of his professors who he said was very tough). Good looking (in some angles). Arch conservative. Good public speaker. I truly think he'd beat Pryor. It'd be close, however.

    •  no (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, GloFish, MichaelNY

      The way things are going, his ceiling is the Senate. His views are a good fit for his R+15 district, but they're too far to the right for him to be electable nationally. He might be viable at some point in the future, but only if he gradually adopted more moderate views. This may be a minority opinion, but barring a Dem implosion I don't think anyone to the right of maybe John Corker or Lamar Alexander can win the presidency.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 01:03:55 PM PDT

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      •  Bob Corker? (5+ / 0-)

        And Lamar Alexander of course has unsuccessfully tried twice for the presidency, though for about a week in 1996 a Lamar! presidency seemed a serious possibility.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 01:10:54 PM PDT

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      •  It will be interesting (6+ / 0-)

        to see if someone as conservative as, say Ted Cruz, can actually win enough states to become president.  If they could win Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, etc.

        Conservatives generally seem to think that basically any Republican, no matter how conservative, is electable nationally as long as they sell their views well.  There's also the crowd that thinks that conservatism actually increases electability, and moderation causes defeats, but I think the more intelligent ones recognize that as a fallacy (just as the DKE crowd, some of the most intelligent Democrats I know, recognize the equivalent fallacy of thinking "most liberal" equals "most electable Democrat").

        For a long time, Democrats seemed convinced we had to nominate Southerners to win.  And now look at us, sending a liberal senator from Illinois to the White House for two terms.  Perhaps this has actually emboldened Republicans in a way...I suppose if they only nominate hard-core conservatives from here on out, at some point they simply will win the presidency with one in a bad year for Dems.  But waiting for Democrats to fail is hardly a long-term strategy for Republicans to recapture the White House.

        •  Whether someone (4+ / 0-)

          As ideologically conservative as Cruz could win is certainly up for debate. I'd lean no, unless the country was just tired of Democratic presidents and needed a change.

          A position I feel more strongly in is that I don't think someone who is as bombastic as Cruz could ever win. For example, I don't think there's a whole lot of ideological separation between Cruz, and say, Roger Wicker but Wicker doesn't seem like a complete jerk all the time.

      •  "Minority" opinion??? (5+ / 0-)

        I think it a foregone conclusion that no one to the right of the guys you named can get elected President.  At the least, you can't posture any further to the right than those guys.

        Bush himself postured explicitly as a "compassionate" conservative and then proceeded to push major legislation on two of the biggest things people of color care about, health care (Medicare Part D and microlegislation like HSAs) and education (NCLB).  And later he pushed comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship.

        I myself didn't appreciate at the time how much things like this helped him in particular with Hispanics, despite Iraq and Dubya's overall lying and demogoguery.  But all this stuff added up to a guy whose posture appeared to be to the left of white Southern conservatives.

        But anyone who is perceived as conservative as you suggest simply cannot win, and even in 2000 Bush and his team didn't think they could pivot that far right and still win.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 07:56:42 PM PDT

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    •  at the risk of getting banned (3+ / 0-)

      i can't stand this circle jerk towards this Cotton guy. There are candidates I think are promising with potential but I don't talk endlessly about how they're going to walk on water and give feed 5000.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 04:16:39 PM PDT

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    •  President Cotton (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      is a terrifying concept. I'd much rather have President Gabbard or President Ruiz (Raul Ruiz).

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 07:06:31 PM PDT

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    •  Your comment makes no sense (5+ / 0-)

      The only "motive" the DSCC and DNC have in this race is to keep the Senate seat in Pryor's and the Democratic Party's hands.  They don't care who the opponent is, they don't care about snuffing out a promising career.  They are smart and experienced enough to realize there are always politically talented people popping up in the major parties every cycle, there's no reason to focus on any one disproportionately.  Cotton is nothing all that special, as an Arkansas wingnut it's not like he can run nationally.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 07:36:48 PM PDT

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