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View Diary: The 'Hoax' (139 comments)

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  •  Alberta is full of railroads (google it!) (0+ / 0-)

    And the capacity of the Keystone pipeline can be met by one train every two hours.  

    I've sat by train tracks before, even in Canada, and observed trains going past quite a bit more frequently than that.

    And yes, the point of the article was that a MASSIVE expansion is right now getting started.  And will take considerable less time to get in place than a major new pipeline because much of the infrastructure already exists.

    About the shortage of railroad cars - don't worry - they're on that:

    Buffett’s Union Tank Car Co. is working at full capacity and Icahn’s American Railcar Industries Inc. (ARII) has a backlog through 2014. Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN), the biggest railcar producer, began converting wind-tower factories last year to help meet demand for train cars that can transport the petroleum product.
    just how idiotic is that?  But it's being done.

    And, another nugget in that paragraph is that it would be tremendously bad optics for Obama to nix a pipeline that would resultingly provide major economic benefits to his (perceived) benefactor, a Mr. Warren Buffet . ..

    •  if it's that easy (0+ / 0-)

      then why propose the pipeline at all, if it's a glorious Shangri La of capacity?  Yes, a MASSIVE expansion might be able to get to a quarter of Keystone's capacity after a time.  TO suggest that it will be super easy and instantaneous to swap out belies the effort that's been put into getting this pipeline.  

      so if Canada puts its entire shipping capacity to this purpose in a few years they might be able to match the Keystone XL.  What that means is that fighting this battle over the next few years will matter.  

      And of course, shipping by rail is considerably more expensive, which is also critical.  

      Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescindibles.

      by Mindful Nature on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 10:28:26 AM PDT

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      •  There already are rail cars on order (0+ / 0-)

        for 4x Keystone's capacity.

        That's something like 3.2 million bbl/day.

        With a projected delivery date of 18 to 24 months, that's like building 4 Keystones in 1/3 the time.

        •  Not sure on the rail car capacity (0+ / 0-)

          However I will say that rail is much dirtier and spill prone than pipelines. While the spills are smaller they are much more frequent. Also Canada is quite clear that if the keystone XL is blocked a pipeline either East or West to the ocean will be built.

          Blocking KXL for the U.S. is arguably a noble NIMBY cause as stated above but to slow the development of the tar sands, I find it unlikely.

          •  Yes, I might have been slightly off (0+ / 0-)

            I was basing the turnaround on the Bakken:

            Rail also offers flexibility and speed. Rail can carry oil from the Bakken region to the Gulf Coast in five days,
            to be conservative, let's add 3 days to get to northern Alberta.

            And bring in this information:

            The State Department report on the Keystone XL proposal said there are 48,000 rail cars on backorder in North America.
            The State Department said that Lloydminster offers access to the two biggest Canadian railroads, Canadian Pacific and Canadian National, and a terminal could load about 13 100-car unit trains a day, more than the capacity of the Keystone XL. Each rail car carries 500 to 700 barrels of crude, with heavy crude at the low end of that range, and the length of a full train is about 1.25 miles.
            Let's say one car can carry 600 bbls (the average of 500 to 700 and it takes 16 days (8 days going, 8 days coming back) to take tarsands oil to the Gulf (again, this is conservative because some will be going to closer locations, like Seattle refineries that will need feedstock as Alaska oil dwindles).

            So, let's divide 600 bbls per 16 days by 16 to get a figure on how many barrels are transported by car per day - that number is 37.5

            Now let's multiple that by the 48,000 rail cars on order (to be delivered within 18 to 24 months) - the number is 1,800,000 bbl/day - or basically the entire current output of the tarsands operation.

            Bottom line - rail can easily scale up to meet any projected production increases.

            Heck, the infrastructure to do so IS ON ORDER - this isn't some pie in the sky scheme - it's something currently underway.

          •  Well (0+ / 0-)

            It isn't going west for sure.  Far too much resistance to that. And if you check out the sources cited by RBG less than 1% is going by rail now.  Yes if Canada devoted its entire infrastructure to this one project to the exclusion of the entire rest of its economy it could pull it off

            Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescindibles.

            by Mindful Nature on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 01:29:03 PM PDT

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            •  if you are willing to believe that aspect (0+ / 0-)

              of my sources, why do you deny the rest of the information is true?  

              Seriously, it is not difficult to ramp up rail transport at all.

              The cars are being built in Texas, and the scale we are talking about to equal the KXL pipeline involves running about one train every two hours.  

              You really have to check it out - CANADA DOES HAVE RAILROADS!  ALREADY!! in fact the country was built on them 150 years ago or whenever.

              But what might have been confusing you is that they sometimes call them railways instead of railroads.  Actually the same thing, however - same gauge and everything that we use.

              •  It isn't the rail roads (0+ / 0-)

                It is the cars and the capacity.  Even your source says that there is some ramp up time here and is clear that it drives up costs, which is critical.

                Hay hombres que luchan un dia, y son buenos Hay otros que luchan un año, y son mejores Hay quienes luchan muchos años, y son muy buenos. Pero hay los que luchan toda la vida. Esos son los imprescindibles.

                by Mindful Nature on Tue Apr 16, 2013 at 10:02:08 AM PDT

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