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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/22 (321 comments)

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  •  PPP NC Miscellany (8+ / 0-)

    PPP released their NC miscellany results this morning. Pat McCrory is still putting up strong approval ratings, currently sporting a 49/36 approval rating. The Republican legislature is fairly unpopular, though - Republican legislators have a 34/53 favorability rating, and the General Assembly has a 20/56 approval rating. This is mostly due to the legislature attempting to pass a broad array of unpopular measures that the poll results outline. Democrats have a 45/41 lead on the generic legislative ballot, though this doesn't mean much considering we won't win back either house of the legislature anytime soon. Finally, in 2016 match-ups, Hillary Clinton leads Marco Rubio 49/42 and leads Rand Paul 52/40.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 08:20:33 AM PDT

    •  Some Conservadem seats (4+ / 0-)

      in Rutherford/Gaston counties can be won back as Democrats have recently held those seats. Also, seats in Onslow and even Carteret county should be contested. A D+7 year should allow Dems to take back the senate. The House though, is sort of hopeless.

    •  Carolina Dems have a better chance (0+ / 0-)

      of getting the Senate than the house.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 09:44:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I wish they polled other Presidentials (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf, askew

      North Carolina is an intriguing state where testing some other Dems in the Presidential trial heats (e.g., Biden, O'Malley, Cuomo) would tell us something about how enduring the shift is that we saw with Obama.  I think it's enduring, but we don't know for sure without polling some "generic" Democrats.  Since Hillary isn't generic and is overperforming because of her brand and most recent sky-high favorables, she's not a good measure of what I'm curious about.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 10:55:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No Democrat is though (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        they'd literally have to ask generic D vs. generic R because Biden is for whatever reason not all that popular while Rubio and Christie are and Paul isn't, all on average of course. PPP usually shy away from those generic match ups because then they can't sell it in their press release to get more visibility.

        •  I don't agree w/all that (0+ / 0-)

          Biden has polled just fine in trial heats where he's included.  He polls pretty much as I'd expect of a generic Dem.

          And Rubio and Christie aren't popular, they're largely unknown.  Same goes for Rand Paul.  The only candidates on either side with serious name rec are Hillary and Biden, and Biden's more-or-less even favorables (perhaps more negative than positive in a majority of polls, but never by much) make him close to a generic Dem.  And of course all the other Dems are really generic Dems.

          I actually think the Democratic nominee is likely to be either Hillary or Biden.  Something would have to seriously derail Obama, and make him as despised as Bush, for rank-and-file Democrats to go with someone else IMO.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 11:12:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  PPP at least consistently find him underwater (0+ / 0-)

            nationally. They find Christie and Rubio's favorables much higher than their unfavorables and both are known by at least half the electorate. There's a reason that nearly every time they poll the find Christie then Rubio then Paul doing successively worse against Clinton and that has to do with their relative popularity.

            And I don't disagree with your assessment that Clinton or Biden are likely nominees, but your original post was about gauging North Carolina's trend and the only way we could do that is with generic candidates, not ones who have established brands. It's one thing to want to know how Biden does, but he is certainly not Generic D at this point when they find him at 40/47 nationally.

            •  PPP finds most people underwater (0+ / 0-)

              PPP's polling results consistently find worse favorables for most candidates and elected officials of both parties.  This has been true for years.  To this day I don't know what to make of it, especially since PPP's last-minute trial heats are consistently accurate.  But the fact is they find much worse favorables for most pols than other pollsters find, even polling at the same time.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 08:06:30 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Why does McCrory have such teflon? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, Gygaxian

      Especially after his repulsive bomblets directed at the Chapel Hill program?

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 11:12:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Unfortunately (0+ / 0-)

        most of North Carolina is not going to defend the women's studies program at UNC Chapel Hill.  That was a slight gaffe but for the most part McCrory has stayed above the fray and out of controversy and he hasn't really done anything yet.

        •  I wasn't just a gaffe (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, bythesea, JBraden

          it was a nasty, narrow-minded, anti-intellectual statement meddling in one of the state's most successful universities. What's more, it was part of a package aiming to undermine the foundation of the state's successful universities which have been a key part of North Carolina's success.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 11:30:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  He hasn't done much at all yet (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BKGyptian89

        and his unfavorables have increased by about twofold from before the election. He's been content to let the legislature do his dirty work and they haven't actually passed much legislation yet. Just wait around until they pass a budget and try to privatize the school system and gut the UNC system and his favorables will drop.

        Mostly though, he's just not a visible figure, despite being governor.

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