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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/22 (321 comments)

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  •  No, I don't think so at all (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, ArkDem14, James Allen

    They've got a token black Senator in there who is a true teabagger, and they reasonably never guessed they'd have to tolerate Mark Sanford as a nominee again for high office.  And even now they'll count on losing this seat only for a short time, taking it back in November '14.  And in the meantime, it's just one seat out of hundreds and they have it to spare.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 10:50:00 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  If Bostic somehow (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      comes through as ECB's opponent in 2014, I don't doubt it would be a close race, especially if she tacks a conservative voting line and runs a good campaign against him; Bostic is basically a small time Todd Akin without the political base and even less fundraising abilities.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 11:08:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Akin was also far right on economic issues (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        calling medicare and social security unconstitutional. I doubt Bostic is dumb enough to make that gaffe. Let's not forget that Akin was set to lose even before legitimate rape, but it really is hard to see a Republican stepping in that again after both Akin and Mourdock, particularly when running against a woman. I'm not denying he'd be an uber weak candidate, but Todd Akin was in a league of his own before he uttered legitimate rape.

        •  He was also neck and neck (0+ / 0-)

          with McCaskill. But polling in Missouri seemed to be weighted by bad far-right pollsters, and PPP continually showed McCaskill much weaker than she was, including being down by high single digits for much of the early part of the race, during the Republican primary.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 11:24:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Akin is an example... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8

          Of where the narrative started to dovetail with the reality. He was saying things like comparing student loans to "stage 3 cancer", but he was still running pretty close with McCaskill before his rape comment. People had already had a perception of him being radically conservative, but that comment really made think he was a whack job, and since he had already made outrageous comments, he had nothing to fall back on to prove he was not.

          I don't know if I completely agree with Stephen Wolf that Akin was on track to lose before his comment, but I agree he was a pretty horrible candidate even before that comment.

          •  You're neglecting to consider that McCaskill (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, The Caped Composer

            was specifically not attacking him over explicitly saying social security was unconstitutional in order to get him to win the primary. He made that comment like 2 weeks afterward and she had already geared up some devastating ads attacking him on all of the other batshit crazy stuff he's said. That is why I think he'd have lost, not because of the polling. Akin was always polling as generic R because he was an unknown representing 1/9th of the state until just a month before the primary when he won with ~a third of the vote. McCaskill was polling about 45-45 with him and both other candidates, but only because she herself was mildly unpopular and they all functioned as generic R. I have little doubt he would have tanked after multiple months of her unloading her warchest on him, though obviously it wouldn't have been a 16 point loss. Maybe more like 5-8 points. You just don't get elected saying all of the stuff he said before the rape comment.

            •  You make a pretty solid argument here... (0+ / 0-)

              The other thing about Akin is he was pretty unrepentant about everything he said. Even his rape comment, he tried to blame it on confusing forcible rape with non-forcible rape.

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