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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/22 (321 comments)

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  •  I think Gabbard would lose and lose badly (3+ / 0-)
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    Stephen Wolf, Gygaxian, bumiputera

    Democratic incumbents lose primaries for four reasons (often combinations of them)

    1) Scandal/crime, or otherwise controversial
    2) Ideologically out of step with voters
    3) Redistricting
    4) They're challenged by a massively popular politician

    Clearly the first three are not applicable here.  So we're talking about Gabbard having to win solely on the fourth.  I know you have a very positive opinion of her, but she is not as dominant a figure in Hawaii politics as you think.  She has attracted interest in her rapid rise, but she won her primary in large part because her opponent (Mufi Hannemann) was so unpopular, and she was more of a blank slate.

    The terms rising star and media darling are very subjective.  She has not been in the news very much (the only news I found on google was that she was giving back 5% of her salary, and that she is the first Hindu in Congress).  How do you know that she is so much more distinguished than all the other freshmen, many of whom have their own fans as well?

    Senator Schatz has also had a relatively recent rise to power, but he was Lt. Gov. for three years, chairman of the Hawaii Democratic Party for two, and a state representative for eight years before (being elected at just 26 years of age).  You would understand that others may actually consider Sen. Schatz to be a rising star as well.

    If Gabbard were to beat him, she would need something to show that she is better than him on.  I really don't know what she could possibly run on aside from "This is my life story, vote for me", completely ignoring Schatz in her commercials.  Meanwhile, Schatz would be able to run with the experience angle, and maintaining a continuous seniority buildup, which is actually a very important issue to Hawaii voters.

    In any case.  I'm 50-50 on whether Hanabusa stays in the House.  But I'm 95% sure Gabbard does.  The former at least has been equally visible and prominent in Hawaii politics for the past 15 years as Schatz has been, in her tenure as state senate majority leader, and has run for both congressional seats, giving her statewide name recognition.  Gabbard got to Congress just three months ago, coming from relative obscurity (city councilor for all of two years).  Hanabusa may feel like this is her last chance at higher office (she is 61), but obviously Gabbard can wait if need be for a chance at an open seat.

    Think about many freshmen representatives give up their seats to primary incumbent senators?

    •  Gabbard's been on the Sunday talk shows (2+ / 0-)
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      Skaje, Gygaxian

      quite a few times. That's a lot for a Freshman House member.

      Your probably right on Gabbard. However I think it's pretty much all but certain Hanabusa is leaving her House seat.

      •  Quite frankly though the Sunday shows are (4+ / 0-)

        irrelevant. Just look at John McCain. He's a total backbencher legislatively (his only accomplishment ever was 10 years ago and has been gutted) yet he's been on the Sunday shows since forever. Not that many voters watch the Sunday shows to begin with and I'd wager it's much lower than read their preeminent local newspaper. If Gabbard is getting mentions in those all the time that'd be one thing, but the Sunday shows really are meaningless in terms of boosting her profile.

        •  Republican Presidential nominee John McCain? (1+ / 0-)
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        •  John McCain is not a legislative backbencher (1+ / 0-)
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          He's had many high profile legislative accomplishments and/or attempts at accomplishments. Campaign finance reform, immigration reform every single time that it has been attempted has deeply involved McCain, the line item veto, cigarette taxes, the bipartisan aviation and transportation security act, the 9/11 commission act, he supported cap and trade in a high profile push with Lieberman, and many others. He's a very prolific and high profile legislator by any meaning of that word.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Tue Apr 23, 2013 at 02:03:07 AM PDT

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      •  Ah yes (0+ / 0-)

        The same shows who keep trying to convince us that karl Rove, Peggy Noonan, John McCain, Haley Barbour et al are political prophets.

        Their relevance has tanked both in and out of the beltway. The only thing they're good for is help in setting a weekly political agenda.

        23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

        by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 09:16:45 PM PDT

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