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View Diary: White House Meeting on Arctic Media Blackout (143 comments)

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  •  Official NOAA sources have stated a later date (43+ / 0-)

    It's only when you look at the collapse in thickness and volume that you see how bad the problem is. Except for a thin layer against the Canadian archipelago and Greenland, the ice could all be gone by the middle of this September.

    I have the sources somewhere in Firefox which crashed and I haven't yet brought back up.

    The ice is that thin now.

    look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

    by FishOutofWater on Tue Apr 30, 2013 at 08:06:40 PM PDT

    •  I'm in the 2016 (or before) camp too . . . (5+ / 0-)

      but it's worth noting that the "weather" that we're seeing now is not caused by the ice melt (winter ice extent was pretty normal this year) . . . it is caused by the same weather/climate change that is leading to the summer melt.  Melting ice and weird weather are both effects . . .

      We are not yet seeing the effects of the coming extended loss of ice . . . that comes later.  This is just the beginning.

      Fake Left, Drive Right . . . not my idea of a Democrat . . .

      by Deward Hastings on Tue Apr 30, 2013 at 09:12:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Did you read (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        maryabein, WarrenS

        the post in Neven's blog about sudden stratospheric warming events? It was written by an amateur, but he had a lot of facts to back it up. Very interesting.
        I've been reading this blog ever since someone (FOOW?) linked to it.

        You..ought to be out raising hell. This is the fighting age. Put on your fighting clothes. -Mother Jones

        by northsylvania on Wed May 01, 2013 at 12:44:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I didn't link to it. He got it wrong, IMO (7+ / 0-)

          SSWs are large scale events triggered by wave planetary scale atmospheric waves breaking into the stratosphere. They correlate with strong tropical convection in Indonesia and the western Pacific. They correlate well with the evolution of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO).

          The desert dust that reaches Greenland is transported at a much lower trajectory.  The author linked multiple coincidences that don't really fit together in that post. The physics is very challenging. I don't fully understand the physics but I can see he's not even in the right ballpark. He has the scale of the problem wrong and the level in the atmosphere wrong.

          SSWs involve the planet's strongest atmospheric convection cell and its highest mountain range & plateau.

          look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

          by FishOutofWater on Wed May 01, 2013 at 05:02:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It was good of him to state he had no credentials (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            GreyHawk, FishOutofWater

            up front, I skipped his analysis. Experts have a hard time with this, I couldn't imagine how many opportunities he would have to misunderstand the subject.

            Even if I knew that tomorrow the world would go to pieces, I would still plant my apple tree. -Martin Luther

            by the fan man on Wed May 01, 2013 at 06:05:50 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  not good (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              johanus, Brooklyn Jim

              I didnt and dont like the word "credentials" for a PhD. This is not about credence. A PhD doesnt mean your words gain authority. It does mean training. You have gone through a years long rigorous scientific training if you have got one. That means its more likely than not that you actually know how to work scientifically, but it doesnt mean that any idea you suggest can claim any more "credence". Ideas at all times have to stand on their own merits. So like Fish said, the important thing was not that he has no PhD, it was that the thesis was not very convincing.

              That also means that one shouldnt stop reading just because someone doesnt have a PhD. One should become extra wary maybe, but not dismiss someone based on a title or lack of it.

          •  agreed, although (4+ / 0-)

            there may be some validity in the "disrupting the polar vortex" part of it.  But as a heat transport mechanism it's off by orders of magnitude.

            Global warming (and the resultant "climate change") is about the oceans.  That's where the energy is, because that's where both the absorbing surface and the heat capacity are.  Our human (landlocked) perspective seems to distract us from that, and as a result to misunderstand what is happening.

            Fake Left, Drive Right . . . not my idea of a Democrat . . .

            by Deward Hastings on Wed May 01, 2013 at 06:47:37 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  this isn't quite true (0+ / 0-)

        the increase in surface warming due to sea ice loss leads to greater humidity and larger snowcover.  In addition the latent heat warming produces shifts in high-altitude air currents that do not change right away.  There is a significant body of knowledge that indicates that the sea ice loss has a lingering effect through the winter and into the spring.  We will certainly see as the new season's melt ensues.  Here is some background info.

    •  post-maslowski era (7+ / 0-)

      as in a 2010 presentation sponsored by the National science academy and the office for naval research where the author predicted an arctic collapse by 2016 +/- 3 years.

      At that time, studies used in the AR4 report indicated that there would be 30% ice cover in the summer of 2100.

      Here is his presentation.

    •  Most of that multi year ice went mobile this Feb (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      New Minas

      FOoW, I'm sure you were keeping an eye on the early cracking event this late winter?  Most of the multiyear ice went mobile with less than 2% of it still being landfast.  Time will tell if those leads, some of which froze back over, will promote transport and melt out of a majority of the remaining multiyear ice.

      Also, been keeping an eye on this:

      Note the thinning concentration spanning from 88° North to 86° North on the Siberian side.  I've been a cryoenthusiast for a number of years now and this is the first time I've seen it start thinning out there this early in the season.  Curious to see if the sea ice south of it flows North to compact around the pole or if we'll have open water there before June.

      Strange days.

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