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  •  Lynch (7+ / 0-)
    There's also fairly strong correlation here (between 0.65 and 0.70) with both the 2008 Democratic primary for president, but also, interestingly enough, the 2010 special general election between Martha Coakley and Scott Brown. Indeed, if you were to build a regression model of Markey's performance, the 2010 special was, remarkably, a better predictor than the 2008 presidential primary.
    I noticed this right away. This is crude, but I took a look at the towns Lynch won (100 of the 351 in Massachusetts) and Scott Brown won 92 of them in 2010. He almost won four more.

    The rare places Coakley won handily and Lynch also won: either in his district (e.g. Randolph, which was in the district until the 2012 elections) or the industrial cities of which you spoke (Lynn, Fall River, Brockton).

    Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

    by fenway49 on Thu May 02, 2013 at 06:12:45 AM PDT

    •  Some of Lynch's support was based on things (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fenway49, Loge

      other than social conservatism, as I explained in this post yesterday.

      "One of the greatest tragedies of man's long trek along the highway of history has been the limiting of neighborly concern to tribe, race, class or nation." Martin Luther King, Jr.

      by brae70 on Thu May 02, 2013 at 06:46:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Understood (3+ / 0-)

        For a number of reasons, some of which are personal to me, Lynch was not acceptable. I get the point you raised in the earlier comment, but felt Lynch was not the vehicle for that.

        There is still a strong overlap between Lynch's support and the Democrats that would go for Scott Brown (who wasn't a raging social conservative either). Last year the unions that supported Lynch generally were strong for Elizabeth Warren, and I hope they'll be as strong for Markey. I think they will.

        Another private equity guy, another pretty face with virtually no resume who'll bring the U.S. Senate closer to a Republican majority is not what we need in Massachusetts.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Thu May 02, 2013 at 08:29:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  As I said in another earlier post, (0+ / 0-)

          except for the cops, it's almost a no brainer that they will.

          The overlap between Lynch and Brown support is explained partly by the fact that some "blue dog" current of former legislators endorsed Brown in places like Lowell, Waltham, Milford etc. It seems that many of those same "blue dogs" went for Lynch, and their allies went with them.  

          I found it most unfortunate, however, that we Lynch supporters seemed to be treated with such disdain in some comments here.  Hopefullym this will change.

           

          "One of the greatest tragedies of man's long trek along the highway of history has been the limiting of neighborly concern to tribe, race, class or nation." Martin Luther King, Jr.

          by brae70 on Thu May 02, 2013 at 09:08:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Condescend much? (0+ / 0-)

        I followed the link and read your post from yesterday. Why do you assert that those of us who disagree with you simply don't understand politics?  We do understand.  We just happen to disagree.

        Nothing in that post explains why Lynch was a better candidate from a Democrat's point of view.  Fine, he's earned the support of unions.  So has Markey.  

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