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View Diary: Really endangered Republicans (and danger zone Democrats) (68 comments)

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  •  in terms of pvi (2+ / 0-)
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    Eric Nelson, David Jarman

    In terms of PVI it needs to be remembered that a district that went Obama by 7 in 2008 and by 4 in 2012 would be rated par (if I am remembering my averages correctly).  So there are Obama districts for one or both of the most recent pres electionsin the low R+ range (PVI calculation is (distance from average 2008 + distance from average 2012)/2).  So yes, Dems need to win in the low R+'s and maybe even deeper to gain the house.  Gerrymandering has made the median PVI seat in republican territory but it is likely not a McCain/Romney district.

    Current 19 months out prognosticating says that while the dems might increase slightly the most likely result is an under 10 seat change in either direction.  A wave could happen but there is not yet enough evidence that a wave is building yet.

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