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View Diary: Poll: Cuccinelli has early lead over McAuliffe (56 comments)

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  •  Creigh Deeds up by 8 . . . (15+ / 0-)

    in a Rasmussen poll in June of 2009.  He lost by 18 in November.

    In 2005, Jerry Kilgore was up by as many as 10 points around this time, and ended up losing by 6.

    All of this is to say, at this stage, polling on the race is what it is.

    Both of the candidates are still relative unknowns.  Most voters, I suspect, are not very plugged into the race and have opinions that are far from fully formed about the candidates.  Still, can't take anything for granted.  

    It seems almost inconceivable that a guy as extreme as Cuccinelli could win, but with an off-year election the GOP seems to have an edge with turning out its base -- Dems usually win when they get a decisive split of independents, but that still takes work.  

    This is a very winnable race -- even with a fairly flawed party nominee.  e.g. McAuliffe, for his flaws should have the money, and in the state, the Dems will have the advantage in terms of "validators" -- like the Clintons, Obama, Warner and Kaine.  Also, I've got to think that McAuliffe is going to do a better job of reaching out to Doug Wilder than Creigh Deeds.  Still, I'd rather see McAuliffe up in the polls by 5 than down -- even at this stage.

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