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View Diary: First-time jobless claims soar to 360,000 (54 comments)

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  •  Seems abut melodramatic to me too (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lujane, wilderness voice, Bob Love, ferg

    This isn't the first statistical spike we've had this year.

    Even if sequestration were to be to blame, you'd expect, what, 10k more job losses a week, give or take? It's unclear how that could even be determined statistically.

    I repeatedly claimed that Obama would never propose cuts to social security. I was wrong. Then again, I also claimed, repeatedly, that Rick Perry would win the 2012 Election, and that The Supreme Court would overturn Health Care Reform.

    by NoFortunateSon on Thu May 16, 2013 at 07:26:00 AM PDT

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    •  Well keep in mind that number is for first time (0+ / 0-)

      jobless claims so if most of the people laid off had ever received unemployment benefits at any time in their life before that they wouldn't be counted.  With the way things are going first time jobless claims will end up being in the single or double digits within a decade because almost everyone will have gotten unemployment at least once in their lives.

      You have watched Faux News, now lose 2d10 SAN.

      by Throw The Bums Out on Thu May 16, 2013 at 12:33:06 PM PDT

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      •  I don't believe that's the way it works (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mr Robert

        When I was on UI, I was able to reapply for first time benefits if I had returned to work full time for a period. Thankfully, I didn't need to.

        I repeatedly claimed that Obama would never propose cuts to social security. I was wrong. Then again, I also claimed, repeatedly, that Rick Perry would win the 2012 Election, and that The Supreme Court would overturn Health Care Reform.

        by NoFortunateSon on Thu May 16, 2013 at 08:07:32 PM PDT

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    •  83 billion in sequester cuts for 1st 12 months (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mdmslle

      1.8 multplier. about 1.5 million jobs per 12 months=28,846 jobs per week.

      .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

      by Roger Fox on Thu May 16, 2013 at 03:21:25 PM PDT

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      •  No one has predicted that level of job losses. (0+ / 0-)

        The reason is that these cuts do not count the same as stimulative spending, the way they are accounted, so no, you can't apply a traditional multiplier.

        As MB notes, estimates range from 300k to 750k per year.

        I repeatedly claimed that Obama would never propose cuts to social security. I was wrong. Then again, I also claimed, repeatedly, that Rick Perry would win the 2012 Election, and that The Supreme Court would overturn Health Care Reform.

        by NoFortunateSon on Thu May 16, 2013 at 08:05:42 PM PDT

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        •  No one? start with CBO via WAPO (0+ / 0-)

          cost the nation about 1.5 million jobs.
          http://articles.washingtonpost.com/...

          CBO via HuffPo 750k
          http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

          1 million jobs
          http://bipartisanpolicy.org/...

          2.14 million jobs, I suspect this quoted source to be a RWNJ, he used the CBO numbers but came up with way more than the 750k-1.5m previously noted. Probably by using a -2.5 multiplier which would only be used for infrastructure.

          http://www.nytimes.com/...

          I'll stick to -1.8

          .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

          by Roger Fox on Fri May 17, 2013 at 02:38:20 PM PDT

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        •  Dean Baker talks about the 1.2 trillion hole (0+ / 0-)

          in the economy, which fits well when looking at the Oct 2009 U6 peak of 17.2% or about 27 million jobs. 1.2 trillion in infrastructure - using a 2.2 multiplier, would create 27 million jobs.

          This suggests that indeed the Sequestration cost in jobs can be calculated by -1.8, or there abouts. Since the multiplier for clerical jobs is 1.8 in regards to stim.

          Lengthy Baker talk:

          .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

          by Roger Fox on Fri May 17, 2013 at 03:01:57 PM PDT

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