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View Diary: As the tornado passed, Erick Erickson Tweeted: "I wonder when Obama will find out about Oklahoma." (232 comments)

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  •  Yes and No. (6+ / 0-)

    It's difficult to tie any single event to global warming but it is changing the system, and so, actually, all weather in the general system is affected by it as a variable to some degree or another, and the trend of storms of increasing severity is now recognized as a bona fide trend.

    We can't statistically isolate the effects of warming so I'm pretty comfortable accepting that it factors often enough to matter despite the unknowable unknowns.

    And I have noticed some climate scientists have begun to mouth the words, perhaps emboldened by what we can directly measure and attribute to AGW but routinely denied.

    Think about it: can we say with any statistical certainty it has not factored in any given event?  Equally impossible to prove.

    400ppm : what about my daughter's future?

    by koNko on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:11:31 AM PDT

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    •  Well yeah (0+ / 0-)

      But if your standard is, "you can't disprove it", then you might as well attribute it to the FSM.  That's not science, and we should be a scientific community.

      Minority rights should never be subject to majority vote.

      by lostboyjim on Tue May 21, 2013 at 08:29:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  We need more than dispassionate facts (0+ / 0-)

        Because if that alone got the job done we wouldn't be having this discussion considering the vast amount of data, analysis and overwhelming consensus in the scientific community that already exists.

        It's a popular fallacy that scientists just make observations and analyze facts to draw conclusions. Some of the best science is done by noticing casual relationships (or even intuitive hunches) that are reasonably possible and working to get information to prove of disprove them.

        Some highly respected climate scientists have recently asserted that the trend of more frequent and severe storms are the systematic product of AGW and although I agree it's nearly impossible to point to any single event and make that claim, the aggregate of them does constitute a trend.

        Anyone vaguely familiar with highly complex and chaotic nature of weather systems will understand how difficult it is to isolate the multitude of factors affecting the system that produce a single incident (if, indeed such things exist as finite events) and so you are demanding, in practical terms, impossible to obtain "proof".

        In doing so, you enable he rhetorical arguments of denialists who use precisely the same reasoning that sufficient proof does not exists so our only reasonable conclusion is AWG is not a factor absent it. Do that if you wish.

        But I wonder, are the irrefutable facts that surface temperatures are rising and that ice caps and glaciers are therefore receding at an accelerating rate prove sufficient proof of AGW or not? And is this process, itself, an input to the weather system or some sort of isolated process?

        I accept it as both proof of change and a factor affecting change, and that we can observe it if we just open our eyes.

        I accept scientific uncertainty, which is part and parcel of even the most pure of disciplines, mathematics.

        And of one thing I am certain as a person can be of anything; that if we don't raise the volume and act, we won't be around long enough to argue because the problem and the science is that complex.

        Litmus tests work in practical terms, and our soon to be gone ice flows that factor significantly in weather are good enough.

        BTW, the DoD and all it's scientific resources (which are significant) already accept the fact of AGW and projected consequences sufficiently to now include this as an element of strategic planing even if Congress and K street is in denial, so at least someone in government is thinking although I don't know how that would result in solution above the level of the street.

        400ppm : what about my daughter's future?

        by koNko on Wed May 22, 2013 at 05:05:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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