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View Diary: Finally some good news, in the form common sense, from Tornado Alley. (75 comments)

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  •  Knowing days isn't enough (0+ / 0-)

    Knowing where a tornado will touch down is necessary to and at roughly what time is necessarily to apply that sort of evacuation plan.  To realistically evacuate on that sort of schedule, detailed forecasting is required.  In my online searches, tornado formation can be predicted for specific days over large regions but sending everyone to shelters in a multi-state area for an entire day is unrealistic.  The warnings need to at least an hour in advance, geographically specific to a county and accurate, At least 70% of the time.  Otherwise people will view them as crying wolf and will ignore the warnings.  

    The goal is to reduce morbidity and mortality from all causes, picking the cheapest projects first and working to more expensive ones so that every dollar spent has the maximum effect on improving our lives on either a years of life saved or net lives saved basis.  

    I'm a 4 Freedoms Democrat.

    by DavidMS on Fri May 24, 2013 at 08:47:20 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Sorry David, you lose. Knowing those days is (0+ / 0-)

      better than anything we could ever hope for.

      Go back to being a CPA, and stop treating people like numbers.

      If you personally choose to pretend that when the Forecasters predict a dangerous, rotating mesocyclone or Supercell thunderstorm as a "Cry Wolf" scenario, that shows your ignorance about how these storms work.

      Storms that show the appropriate radar signatures, and those known to produce tornadoes in previous towns are knowledge enough to take cover.

      If your home is in the path, but is spared, either because the storm wobbled, turned, or the tornado dissipated, then count yourself lucky, but never doubt that was the moment that the big bad wolf was knocking at your door.

      •  Again its a cost/benifit tradeoff (0+ / 0-)

        Spending that kind of money may mean that children won't get affordable healthcare, that college becomes even more expensive, that money will not be available to combat climate change, end HIV/AIDS or replace worn out bridges.  

        Everything in life is a trade off.  There has never been a free lunch.  We can never have it all.  

        What we can do is use our limited resources to best make life safer and more comfortable for everyone.  Spending billions on a difficult to predict and rare threat (EF5 storms) while ignoring other causes of human misery isn't very progressive.  

        I'm a 4 Freedoms Democrat.

        by DavidMS on Mon May 27, 2013 at 08:47:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Be sure and tell that to the people who lost (0+ / 0-)

          Someone.

          Cost Benefit trade off--Knowing the cost of everything and the value of nothing.

          •  I will remember to (0+ / 0-)

            Tell everyone who lost someone to a lack of healthcare that you would prefer to mitigate rare and spectacular risks.  

            I'm a 4 Freedoms Democrat.

            by DavidMS on Mon May 27, 2013 at 07:18:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Oh Wow---I love it when people present me with (0+ / 0-)

              False Choices.

              Which is it going to be?

              You can only have one!

              Health Care, or Storm Shelters in Public Schools in Tornado Alley.

              Think carefully--because you can only have one.

              That's a load of crap.

              I suppose next you are going to tell us that in California, you can only have Health Care OR Earthquake Building Codes.

              Or

              Health Care OR Tsunami Evacuation Plans,

              Health care OR the USGS Volcano Monitoring System?

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