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View Diary: PA-Gov: The Penn State Sex Abuse Scandal Will Make Tom Corbett (R) A One Term Governor (29 comments)

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  •  Corbett can be beaten. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mostel26, mconvente

    But,it won't be easy. He will likely raise 40-50 million dollars with the extraction industry leading the way.Like LEFT I'm not sold on Schwartz. I'm also not convinced she can win. The out of state dark money is going to hammer her from 2 weeks out til election day w/ties to abortion to get the hard right Christians to the polls. Mid term turnout for Pa. Dems isn 't great which might save Corbett if he can give his base an incentive to get out to vote. On the other hand female candidates have done well in Pa.the last 5-10 years so perhaps she can win.

    •  Well here are a few things to consider, whenever (6+ / 0-)

      you have a polarizing figure running for re-election who has pissed off the voters so much that their base will let them lose and voter turnout will still be big enough to get rid of that person.  Just look at the 2006 midterm and how badly Santorum lost to Bob Casey.  As for the abortion issue, I think time has changed on that issue.  Yes there are still old school pro-life Catholic voters but they're pro-family and pro-Penn State as well.  They may not vote for Schwartz but they won't help Corbett get re-elected.  They'll sit it out and let him go down.  My mother didn't like Bob Casey because of his pro-life views but she hated Santorum and knew he was going to lose so she just sat out the 2006 election.  She voted for Casey in the last election and I convinced her to vote for Sestak over Specter in the 2010 primary.  Plus this part knocks it out of the park:

      On the other hand female candidates have done well in Pa.the last 5-10 years so perhaps she can win.
      Kathleen Kane won by making the Penn State scandal an issue and she's very pro-choice and pro-gun control.  Gay marriage is now very slightly favored in PA plus when Casey came out for more gun control and banning assault weapons after the Sandy Hook shooting, his popularity went up.  Toomey's numbers are a little more steady because he worked with Joe Manchin but he will have to still please the Tea Party base if he wants a second term in 2016.  But I think Sestak will finally get his revenge.

      Also consider this, Schwartz has very close ties to the PA Dem Party.  She's a team player and this is her time to win.  She tried to be the Dem nominee in 2000 against Santorum but pro-life Democrat Ron Kirk was backed by the establishment and basically ran on the "I'm socially conservative enough to win" argument.  Even though Gore won PA in 2000 Santorum was re-elected because Kirk was a lackluster candidate.  Also Schwartz has the Dem Party finance director on her team and she's a fundraising juggernaut with ties to NARAL and pro-women's health organizations.  The DGA is very convinced that Schwartz is the best choice and can win because Corbett's approval rating are horrendous with women voters and Schwartz will have that going for her.

      Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

      by poopdogcomedy on Tue Jun 11, 2013 at 01:42:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Team player (0+ / 0-)

        I have to admit this is the first time I've seen her referred to in this manner. She is not popular with the other Pa Dems in Congress and has only been wooing them now that she is running for Governor.She lost a narrow primary to Ron Klink,a Western Pa. congressman in 2000. The Corbett campaign wants to run against her as it feels she is the weakest candidate statewide. True she raises a lot of money,but that may not be enough to get her over the hump.Pennsylvania has a history of electing a lot of centrists as governor.Shafer,Casey, Ridge and Rendell all fit that mold . Not sure if this state will elect a liberal as governor even with a flawed incumbent.

        •  Still have to disagree with you. PA Dems are much (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mostel26

          better about getting over the hump and getting behind the candidate.  They got over Specter losing to Sestak in the primary and Specter ever gracefully took Sestak to lunch with his Senate colleagues to try and help him out.  He immediately endorsed Sestak after losing the primary.  Rendell was considered liberal in the 2002 primary when Casey was the establishment's pick but he pulled off an upset and his more socially liberal stances helped him win the the Philly suburbs where they're fiscally conservative but socially liberal.  Plus Pittsburgh, my home town, is the 5th gay friendly city in the U.S. according to the Advocate's January 2011 issue:

          http://www.advocate.com/...

          Plus here's why Schwartz is a team player:

          http://www.keystonepolitics.com/...

          The Burgh is also pretty green:

          http://www.forbes.com/...

          Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

          by poopdogcomedy on Tue Jun 11, 2013 at 04:10:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I work in Pittsburgh but (0+ / 0-)

            I live in the Alabama portion of the state. I have worked polls here and have done doors for multiple candidates.The people here and in the T are not likely to sit out on Corbett when faced with a Schwartz candidacy.Yes,she can win in the Rendell manner if she obtains a big enough vote in Philly and the bedroom counties.I doubt that she is as popular as Ed was there when he first ran. At this time it looks like the Dem primary will be expensive and bloody,so the ultimate winner may not recover in time.It's still a long way off and not everyone who is going to be in has joined the race. If she gets the nomination I will do my part to help elect her,but I am troubled that she is the person the Corbett people want to run against. They aren't stupid,even though he is a poor politician. As to Rendell/Casey that race turned more on the fact that the former created a lot of good will in the bedroom counties with his successful tenure as mayor.

            •  Hey, I'm not saying that beating Corbett won't be (0+ / 0-)

              easy and yeah I'm aware that Corbett's hardcore constituency will be out for him or hold his nose but what I'm wondering is by the time the election gets closer how much of Corbett's hardcore base will truly come back for him.  Plus you're forgetting the Scranton area which is heavily Democrat and she can win that area as well.  Plus I think the Erie area is up for grabs as well.  Sestak won it in 2010.  Now I understand the abortion argument and planned parenthood issues but I really don't think they're going to drag Schwartz down.  If anything, she can and has made the mandatory ultrasound bill and Corbett remarks issues and if Corbett and his people hammer away at that too much, he's only going to anger women, especially younger female voters, to come out for Schwartz.  Now I admit I'm worried about the primary as well but again I think Democrats will put that shit aside and get behind whoever the nominee is.  The days of "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line" I think are coming to an end.  Corbett's people may not be stupid but they can overplay their hand.

              Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

              by poopdogcomedy on Tue Jun 11, 2013 at 05:12:16 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

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