Skip to main content

View Diary: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: GOP's Latino problem, their IRS problem, and more (174 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but the (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, a2nite, Bush Bites, sap

    representation has grown (as a percentage of the electorate) and continues to grow.  NY Times exit polls from 2012 show Hispanics at 10% of the electorate, still far short of the 16-17% of the population, but an increase from 9% in 2008 and 8% in 2004 according to NY Times. While not skyrocketing, these indicate a clear IMHO trend toward reaching representation at the ballot box close to their percentage of the population, especially when you compare to Hispanic representation in the low single digits through the 1980s.

    There is a bunch of data in this opinion piece if anyone is interested in sifting through it.

    One thing that is going to help is the GOTV among Hispanics, as even Hispanics that are registered to vote usually show up less than other groups at the ballot box. So it is about registration and also about GOTV.

    •  I'm less optimistic about Dem future (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Micheline, DefendOurConstitution

      for three reasons.

      I love that data and it looks great but things can shift with poor candidates or a couple of poorly executed campaign events.

      I'm concerned that:

      1) Hispanic voters even after the 2020 census may still find themselves gerrymandered out of fair representation in a significant number of districts.

      2) Among the elements of Obama's electioneering success, the way they employed classic community organizing models was key.  I suspect other Dem candidates will not be able to replicate that in future Prez elections.

      3) Dems historically have more difficulty with GOTV in midterms and other off-Prez election years.  States and local jurisdictions may still be strong Repub hands.  Dems often over-focus on the Prez contest and neglect others down ticket.  In some states right now Repubs are ruling with oppressive laws and corporate money buying elections.  That could continue.

      In my township in Illinois, an area that handily went for Obama and a Dem representative in 2012, we lost local elections in April of this year by a 2 to 1 margin.

      We all just have to stay organized and GOTV for not only 2020 but 2014, 2015, 2016, etc...

      I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

      by Satya1 on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 08:12:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site