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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/18 (335 comments)

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  •  KY-Sen: At convention of KY county judge convent. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp

    ALG spoke first apolitically before being asked some political questions and she waded into a few tough positions: https://twitter.com/...

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 11:20:59 AM PDT

    •  And a pretty good Roll Call piece on KY-Sen: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 11:23:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  She needs to put miles and miles of daylight (5+ / 0-)

      between herself and Obama on coal and I don't really see the downside of doing so. It isn't like people like Joe Manchin do worse than expected in the 'liberal' enclaves in Charleston and Morgantown despite being rabidly pro-coal.

      You can expect one of McConnell's sharpest attacks against her will be to tie her to Obama's "war on coal" (more like the natural gas industry's war on coal). McConnell lost all of the Democratic leaning coal counties in Eastern KY and a handful of them in Western KY last time and ALG will need to win nearly all of them as she can only improve so much in Louisville and Lexington. She'll probably do a bit better than Lunsford in the Cincinnati suburbs, but that was an area of relative weakness for her in 2011 and I'd expect McConnell to remain very strong there.

      •  Agreed. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        aamail6, Zack from the SFV, JBraden

        If McConnell has a history of supporting fracking in other states, she could say that stole investments from coal.  

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 11:33:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  According to my calculations, there are about (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        521,000 potential voters in Jefferson County.

        I got this calculation by taking the 750,828    Census estimate and taking the percentage of the population that is over 18, which is 76.1 percent. That gives us about 579,000 voters. If we assume that 10 percent of the population won't or can't vote, that leaves us with the figure of 521,000.

        In 2010, Conway received 55.43 percent of the vote. About 259,000 people voted, so that was about 143,000 votes. If we get that up to 300,000, and see Grimes get 60 percent of the vote, this means we'd get about 180,000 total, or gain of about 37,000, while McConnell going from Paul's roughly 114,000 votes would go to 120,000, gaining only about 6,000. This leaves us, assuming all other results stayed the same, with a net gain of 31,000.

        As a point of comparison, this would have given Conway about 1 more percentage point in 2010. Nothing huge, but nothing to sneeze at, either.

        And if we could really ramp up turnout in Jefferson County, who knows how high we could climb?

        "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

        by bjssp on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 11:52:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  She probably needs closer to 62% (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          of the vote in Jefferson County to win statewide. And arund 60% in Fayette (her political based).

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 03:17:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  In Jefferson County, it looks like there's (0+ / 0-)

            a lot of votes that have yet to be tapped, so getting to 62 percent doesn't look like it'll be a problem.

            "The polls are meaningless, riddled with biases, inaccuracies, and an unrealistic electorate. The only poll that matters is the one on election day..."--said by any number of candidates down in the polls

            by bjssp on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 08:56:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  All three positions (5+ / 0-)

      seem very smartly framed: defending coal, acknowledging constituent distrust of Obamacare without going overboard, and pointing to recent signs of McConnell's ineffectiveness as minority leader.

      I'm impressed!

      •  She's gonna give Mitch a run for his sewer money. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, KingofSpades, JGibson

        Is she a shoo-in?  Hardly.  But I have a feeling this is going to be the toughest campaign the Turtle Man has ever had.

        If she forces the RNC to drain resources in KY that could have gone to AR/AK/LA/GA etc., that alone will be a huge win for us.  And if she does pull off the upset, well, that will be some awesome cake icing!

        Born, raised, and currently reside in PA-3 (where ladyparts medicine is tantamount to Pearl Harbor and 9/11); college in the old OH-10; graduate school in the old OH-17

        by JBraden on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 04:08:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  This at least makes her better in Kentucky (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, jncca

      Than Ashley Judd, who was notoriously anti-coal.

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