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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/6 (288 comments)

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  •  Frank Wolf gets a Dem challenger (4+ / 0-)

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    This is such a winnable seat, but the RollCall article is correct; he has been very hard to knock off. Let's just hope he retires...

    Is Bolger just a "some dude" candidate?

    •  The John Warner of the House. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, KingofSpades

      When it comes to VA anyway.  He's not moderate like Warner was, but he's been there so long that people vote for him out of pure loyalty.  I don't think we win this one until he retires.

    •  I'm not entirely sure a Dem could win VA-10 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      even if it were open. They drew the district to be as unfriendly to downballot Dems as possible - Obama lost the Fairfax portion of the district, and Loudoun, as I've mentioned innumerable times, is an uphill slog for anyone below statewide office. And there's no bench of note in the district, especially if Mark Herring is elected AG.

      •  If Dick Black runs here (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and if Wolf retires in a Presidential year, we can pick it up.  That's dependent on continuing to keep the blue trend in Loudon and Fairfax County.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 08:01:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  We don't need Dick Black to run against (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingofSpades

          We can beat Generic R here.  I live here, I know it pretty well.  It's tossup/tilt R like I said in my other comment, but that's as bad as it gets.  And like the state overall, the demographics are very slowly trending our way.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:52:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  You're wrong about that, it's winnable... (3+ / 0-)

        ...as an open seat.  I'd say a Generic D vs. Generic R race would be tossup/tilt R.  So yes, a thumb on the scale for the GOP, but no more than that.

        "No bench" also is wrong, plenty enough is in Fairfax County to draw from people where I live.  Most Fairfax electeds are Dems.  And you don't need a downballot elected official for a U.S. House race, it's routine for people to win these elections as their first elected office, including often against downballot electeds.  Voters don't give "successful person with great resume and life experience" less weight than "some state legislator or county elected I've never heard of or seen on my ballot."  Downballot electeds can't even claim a name rec advantage outside their little district, and not always even there.

        Loudoun is not an uphill slog at all in federal races.  They have local problems, but in a federal cycle a Democrat can do well there.  Kaine beat Allen in the 10th overall and won Loudoun 53-47, a 9,000-raw vote margin.  That's a pretty good Generic D vs. Generic R matchup, both had comparable favorables and comparable resumes (and Allen seemed untarnished with white voters from his 2006 revelations and defeat).

        I feel great about our chances of picking up the seat whenever Wolf retires.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:51:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Tom Perriello (3+ / 0-)

        won in VA-5 (a notably more conservative district, except in the Charlottesville area) despite having no elected office experience, so I don't think he was widely considered as part of the Democratic "bench" prior to victory.

        Dems aren't beating Wolf, but if open the seat could well be winnable, and not necessarily with an officeholder.  Especially given the possibility the GOP might choose unwisely with a Bible-thumper or immigrant-basher, it would definitely be worthy of serious attention then.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 12:18:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Might be DCCC (0+ / 0-)

      I saw his name on a random DCCC petition/fundraising vehicle someone sent me a few weeks back, so it might be a good sign.

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