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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/6 (288 comments)

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  •  Could that have been any longer (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    Seriously at the end of the day, both are going to survive the recall.  

    But contrary to numerous assumpitons, losing recalls is not good news for the NRA and winning these recalls will not embolden Dems to go back and re-visit gun control.

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:20:58 AM PDT

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    •  I am looking at the Legislative Districts by (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      petral, MichaelNY

      Presidential results spreadsheet that DKE has here, and it says Obama won Morse's district with 59% and Giron's with 58% in 2012.....how are these seats considered a tossup? That's a pretty decisive win for 2012...unless turnout will be the issue in this election.

      I also noticed Senate districts that Democrats controlled with much smaller victory margins for Obama -- why didn't the NRA look to recall those Senators instead?

      •  Turnout is the issue (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        petral, MichaelNY

        Morse's district had a big drop off in 2010.  Plus, NRA types may be outnumbered but they tend to be far more passionate and likely to show up.  

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

        by Jeff Singer on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:47:02 AM PDT

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      •  If they are tossups (5+ / 0-)

        Its due to concerns about turnout.  Even a modestly good effort by Dems and both win.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 10:51:07 AM PDT

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      •  These are safe Dem seats (1+ / 0-)
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        gabjoh

        As are almost all of our seats in Colorado (term limits prevent Jim Matheson types from getting entrenched and holding down red turf).  I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the recalls go down in flames, 65-35 margins.  People forget Republicans forced recalls against three Democratic Senators in Wisconsin as well, losing each one in a landslide.  The mere act of forcing a recall doesn't mean that it is competitive.

        •  Even in 2010 we still did very well here (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, MichaelNY, ArkDem14

          in all of our statewide elections. In fact it seems that not a single statewide Republican candidate won either district except maybe Attorney General Suthers in the 11th, but he was winning by 13! statewide.

          I bet we clear 60% in both districts; Giron's is also one where statewide and local D's tend to outperform the president.

        •  Technically there were 7 recalls (2+ / 0-)
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          James Allen, MichaelNY

          Democrats actually won three of these.

          1. Jessica King over Randy Hopper after his repeat DWIs
          2. John Lehman in a rematch over Van Waagaurd in a swingy district.
          3. Jennifer Schilling crushed two term incumbent and arch-conservative Dan Kapanke, who had somehow managed to hold onto a solidly Democratic district.

          Several of the other recalls were actually kept legitimately close, particularly against Alberta Darling.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 06:54:30 PM PDT

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