Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/6 (288 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Thanks for the shout-out, here's my thoughts (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    propjoe, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY, gabjoh

    1. Yeah, Dabakis has been a cheerleader for the party for years (he's had a left-leaning radio show since the 90s), and he's an unflappable optimist. However, he's also made a lot of missteps recently (most of which are his fault), so he may get replaced within a couple of years. His optimism is really grating, to be honest. At least it's better than the bitter angry pessimists though.

    2. Yeah, the "Utah will turn purple" crowd are way too optimistic, but the Utah Dems did provide some numbers: There's 307,000 unregistered eligible voters in Utah, 64% of which are supposedly Democratic. According to the Utah Dems, there are 59,362 unregistered likely Democratic voters in Salt Lake County, and specifically 37,824 in Matheson's district.

    2a. According to this snail mail newsletter I got, Weber County would have voted for Obama if we would have gotten out the vote.

    2b. Four Utah house districts were won and lost by fewer than 500 votes (I actually checked the numbers and can confirm this), and eight by fewer than 1,000 votes.

    2c. They said that in all states, voting by mail increases voter participation by 10-12%, and that the early vote in all states (including Utah) leaned Democratic.

    3. I went to the events with Howard Dean, and he seemed confident that Utah Dems could register 40,000 new voters out of the 307,000 unregistered voters. He said he'd bring some of the resources of DfA over to Utah, for what that's worth. I honestly think we'll be able to get the 40,000 by 2014. Excitement over Luz Roble's candidacy may help with that. The Utah Dems don't have any grand history of following through on large projects, but lets be honest; even getting 20,000 votes would help.

    4. More than half the population in the state lives in the Wasatch Front, so at least they'll be easy to contact.

    5. Don't underestimate the corruption scandals; at least in the case of the state AG, there's a very good chance he'll either go down in flames late enough that our enormously popular SLCO District Attorney Sim Gill could have a good chance at taking the AG's office. State Attorney General was the last statewide office Democrats held in any case.

    6. Regarding UT-02, it won't be hard to do worse than poor Jay Seegmiller did in 2012, as he only got 33% and only raised $33,000. From what I hear from Democratic activists, he only barely tried. So if Luz Robles tries at all (and she's intending to raise 1 million dollars), then she'll get a much better result. People already know and like her in Salt Lake City, where most of the population in the district is and where she's held her state senate district. My gut feeling is that she'll at least hit low 40s, especially since Chris Stewart is not well liked.

    7. A final comment on Jim Dabakis; he's an odd duck, because he's part of the particular part of Salt Lake City which cares only for LGBT issues and essentially goes "screw the rest of the state", but he's desperately trying to appeal to Mormon voters, while at the same time being state senator of that particular area. I don't think he has the right know-how to permanently bring over many Mormon Dems, but he could probably pull it off temporarily.

    8. Utah's opposing party chairpersons are a black guy on the GOP and a gay man on the Democratic side. Neither of which are Mormon. Now who has the least diverse state?!? Haha.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 12:31:09 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site