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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/6 (288 comments)

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  •  Remember (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    In 2008 and 2012, the eventual winner of the nomination was seen as the more moderate of the candidates. Senate candidates tend to get 'bagged, but presidentially, they haven't nominated the truly crazy ones.

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 01:21:25 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah but (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Having 2 or 3 moderates in the race and 85 conservatives still makes me think the 3rd moderate helps the leading conservatives.

      Then again, it all depends who on the list of usual suspects actually runs.  If it's a 5 vs 3 (uber-conservative versus moderate) then of course Browns' entry could hurt Christie more than if there are 10 uber-cons.  

      Of curse I still can't tell you who the Iowa Republican primary voter for Scott Brown is.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 01:28:06 PM PDT

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    •  I still have dreams (6+ / 0-)

      of what an Obama vs. Santorum map would have looked like.  I remember talking with some of my conservative relatives during primary season, and they all despised Romney.  They said the mainstream media wanted to force Romney on the party because it would guarantee Obama's re-election, because Romney was too moderate.  Only a true conservative like Santorum or Perry could defeat Obama.  I was so hopeful to see Romney lose the nomination.

      Sigh.  What could have been.

      •  I tried to help. (4+ / 0-)

        I mischievously  voted for Santorum in the GOP primary in WI.

        Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

        by WisJohn on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:11:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  What states would he have lost to Obama (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        that Romney won?  Hmm...North Carolina, AZ, MAYBE MO?

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:14:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Indiana, Georgia and Omaha, possibly. nt (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

          by WisJohn on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:15:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Probably (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, ArkDem14

          The larger problem for Santorum would have been that he'd have had a hard time fundraising for the general. Most wealthy business types don't like hardcore social conservatives. He might even have had to accept public financing for the general, which would have been interesting indeed. Under those circumstances, with what O raised in 2011-2012, a real wipeout would indeed have been possible. Without an opponent about equal in the money game like Romney, O would have won Ohio by ten and Florida by a couple. Santorum would undoubtedly have tried to spend a lot to win his home state, but he probably would have lost that by 15.

          Under those circumstances, Obama would have had money to burn in order to make a bunch of Indiana-type longshot bets.

          •  I doubt it (0+ / 0-)

            Obama would have crushed Santorum in the popular vote, by 10-13%.  But the extra votes he would have gotten would largely be educated whites in the blue-state suburbs.  For example, I could easily see Santorum failing to clear 30% in California or New York.  And there would be a chunk of R voters who would just vote for Gary Johnson as well.

            I'm not sure that Obama would have won any additional state but North Carolina (and the Nebraska EV).  Perhaps Georgia or Arizona, but the whites there are pretty hardened.  Maybe Montana or Alaska, as many would vote Libertarian.

            Of course, this assumes that Santorum actually ran a real campaign rather than as a Christian jihadist "prophet".  There is a chance that he knows he will lose, and just goes Alan Keyes in the debates, making Todd Akinesque comments about gays.

      •  Here's my submition: (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, KingofSpades, ArkDem14, gabjoh

         photo Obama-Santorum2012_zps1bef5b4e.png

        I think Santorum would have collapsed. His campaign was a joke compared to Romney's in terms of organization and fundraising and his nomination wouldn't have changed the second one at all. I really think we'd have been looking at an Obama win of 10% or maybe a little more than that and with Obama's big cash and infrastructure advantage that should definitely have allowed him to flip Arizona and NE-02 as well as Indiana and North Carolina. Montana and Missouri are definitely possibilities though the latter one is probably his closest win. I just don't see Santorum in particular playing well at all in suburbia or out west and I wouldn't have been shocked to see some spending in Alaska or North Dakota. Obama really would have had a huge spending advantage.

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