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View Diary: Australian Federal Election - Final Predictions (46 comments)

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  •  Yikes! (0+ / 0-)

    That last update on seats is pretty dramatic.  Can you remind us what your model predicted pre-leadership spill?  Is Labor really going to be better off going to the election with Rudd rather than Gillard?

    Cynicism is what passes for insight among the mediocre.

    by Sky Net on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 07:35:02 PM PDT

    •  There were bad polls for Labor this morning (0+ / 0-)

      When I was writing up this diary I was hoping the final polls would be on trend so the final predictions posted would match the final predictions the model actually made.
      Disappointingly that's not how things turned out.
      The model had about this kind of result as its final pre-spill predictions but that factors in people thinking Rudd would return.
      I think Labor were better off switching to Rudd but its all speculation and second-guessing really.

    •  Would have lost bigger ... (0+ / 0-)

      ... in Western Sydney and Queensland ~ I think they only lost one ALP seat in Queensland, where they would have lost more as things stood when Gilliard was spilled.

      Don't know if they would have done better anywhere else to make up for that.

      Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

      by BruceMcF on Sat Sep 07, 2013 at 11:06:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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