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View Diary: Australian Federal Election - Final Predictions (46 comments)

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  •  Sort of (4+ / 0-)

    I will post a recap but it won't be tomorrow because I'm mostly interested in assessing the accuracy of the model and final results won't be available for a week or two.

    But a quick summary.
    I'm not too unhappy with how things finished up. Obviously I'm less than thrilled with a Coalition government however whilst;
    The Coalition won like everyone expected.
    It wasn't by as much as most people thought.
    It was by pretty much what the model thought. And the model did rather well on a seat by seat basis, at least looking at its final iteration (unpublished because I had to get to my polling place but alluded to in an update :/)
    The Greens held Melbourne and are looking ok in the Senate.
    The Coalition isn't look great in the Senate.
    It could have been a lot worse!

    •  Adam Bandt (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      churchylafemme, Alizarin Indigo

      winning in Melbourne and Jaymes Diaz being rejected by the people of Greenway were some of the best moments of a pretty terrible night imo.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Sat Sep 07, 2013 at 07:57:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      churchylafemme, Australian2

      Senate is hard to understand for an outsider.

      As I look at the results on
      some of it is pretty amazing.
      If I'm reading it correctly, the minor party votes are incredible. Very, very different political views yet getting transferred votes?
      Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party?
      Australian Sports Party?

      The plural of anecdote is not data.

      by Skipbidder on Sat Sep 07, 2013 at 08:50:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They're getting VERY low primary (0+ / 0-)

        (i.e., 1st-preference) votes - they're simply benefiting from extraordinarily favourable preference deals.

        AMEP in Victoria, for instance, received just 0.52% of the primary vote - but they received the preferences of virtually all of the parties who got less, which pushed them past some others, and so on and so forth.

        Likewise, the ASP in WA received just 0.22% of the vote - but still ended up with a Senate seat on preferences.

        Lesson? Sometimes preferential voting works really well, but sometimes (like now) the results suck.

        For more ins and outs of the above-the-line system of voting and how it works, see here.

        "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

        by Australian2 on Sat Sep 07, 2013 at 11:07:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, unlike European proportional ... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Alizarin Indigo

        ... systems, there is no first preference threshold, and unlike preference voting by party systems, its preference vote by individual candidate, so in NSW where there are 110 candidates, there is a strong incentive to vote above the line.

        But voting above the line means if your party doesn't make their quota, it goes to the preference instructions of the party.

        With the first five seats normally filled by the first preference votes for the major parties, a big part of the Senate election in deciding how to allocate "the sixth seat" is driven by intricate preference deals between the minor parties.

        Reforming it to allow preference voting above the line would be a big improvement.

        Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

        by BruceMcF on Sat Sep 07, 2013 at 11:11:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Greens (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      It looks like the Greens got barely nipped out of multiple Senate seats.

      The plural of anecdote is not data.

      by Skipbidder on Sat Sep 07, 2013 at 08:53:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Lets see ... (0+ / 0-)

        ... comparing the allocation if the vote went by "closest to a quota", actually no. The Greens were done out by preferences in one state, and won on preference flow in another, so its a line ball for the Greens.

        The net damage was to Libs or Lib/National Coalition losing to 3rd and Minor Party Conservative and Labor losing to a Minor Party Conservative.

        But mostly it was not preferences, it was the primary vote going to either the Libs or to Conservative 3rd & Minor Parties that took the balance of power in the Senate out of Green hands.

        Queensland: 3 Libs, 2 Labor, 1 Palmer United Party.

        2Lib & 2Lab on full quotas, then the Libs 0.8565, PUP 0.7236 ... to form.

        NSW: 3 Libs & Nats, 2 Labor, 1 Dems (Liberal Democratic Party).

        2 Lib&Nat full quotas, 2 Labor full quotas, partial quotas: Dems 0.6222, Greens 0.5446, Lib&Nats 0.4249, Palmer 0.2470, the Greens lost the last seat on preference distribution, which was primarily from the HEMP Marijuana Legalization Party and the Wikileaks Party both preferencing the Dems for tactical reasons rather than support for party's issue.

        Vic: 2Lib, 2Lab, 1Greens, 1 Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party.

        On primary vote, 2 full quotas for Libs and Labor, then partial quotas Greens 0.7791, Libs/Nats 0.7464, Lab 0.3207, Palmer 0.2647, so it was the Libs/Nats (I'm guessing the Nats) done out on preferences ... that was on minor party preferences across the board (from Sex Party through Palmer United) putting AMEP ahead of the Libs/Nats.

        Tassie: 2Lib, 2Lab, 1Greens, 1Palmer.

        On primary vote, Libs and Lab 2 full quotas, then Greens 0.8156, Libs 0.6059, Palmer 0.4850, so again it was the Libs done out on preference in favor of Palmer, with in the final distrbution, only Sex Party preferences flowing to the Libs over the Palmer United party.

        South Australia: 2Libs, 1Lab, 1Greens, 1Xenephon, 1Family First.

        Primary vote 1 each Libs, Labs, Xenephon. Partial quotas Libs 0.8680, Xenephon 0.8117, Labor 0.5945, Greens 0.4956, Family First 0.2639, Dems 0.2447, Palmer 0.1902. Here it was Labor and Xenephon done out by the Greens and Family First on preferences.

        WA: 3Libs, 1 each Labor, Australian Sports Party, Greens.

        Primary vote: 2 full quotas Libs, 1 full quota Labor, then Labor 0.8890, Libs 0.7648, Greens 0.6598, Palmer 0.3667, Nationals 0.3012, Dems 0.2394, Australian Christians 0.1138,  Sex Party 0.1003. Here is was Labor done out by Ozzie Sports Party.

        Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

        by BruceMcF on Sat Sep 07, 2013 at 02:59:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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