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View Diary: Australian Federal Election - Final Predictions (46 comments)

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  •  Greens (1+ / 0-)
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    Australian2

    It looks like the Greens got barely nipped out of multiple Senate seats.

    The plural of anecdote is not data.

    by Skipbidder on Sat Sep 07, 2013 at 08:53:14 AM PDT

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    •  Lets see ... (0+ / 0-)

      ... comparing the allocation if the vote went by "closest to a quota", actually no. The Greens were done out by preferences in one state, and won on preference flow in another, so its a line ball for the Greens.

      The net damage was to Libs or Lib/National Coalition losing to 3rd and Minor Party Conservative and Labor losing to a Minor Party Conservative.

      But mostly it was not preferences, it was the primary vote going to either the Libs or to Conservative 3rd & Minor Parties that took the balance of power in the Senate out of Green hands.

      Queensland: 3 Libs, 2 Labor, 1 Palmer United Party.

      2Lib & 2Lab on full quotas, then the Libs 0.8565, PUP 0.7236 ... to form.

      NSW: 3 Libs & Nats, 2 Labor, 1 Dems (Liberal Democratic Party).

      2 Lib&Nat full quotas, 2 Labor full quotas, partial quotas: Dems 0.6222, Greens 0.5446, Lib&Nats 0.4249, Palmer 0.2470, the Greens lost the last seat on preference distribution, which was primarily from the HEMP Marijuana Legalization Party and the Wikileaks Party both preferencing the Dems for tactical reasons rather than support for party's issue.

      Vic: 2Lib, 2Lab, 1Greens, 1 Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party.

      On primary vote, 2 full quotas for Libs and Labor, then partial quotas Greens 0.7791, Libs/Nats 0.7464, Lab 0.3207, Palmer 0.2647, so it was the Libs/Nats (I'm guessing the Nats) done out on preferences ... that was on minor party preferences across the board (from Sex Party through Palmer United) putting AMEP ahead of the Libs/Nats.

      Tassie: 2Lib, 2Lab, 1Greens, 1Palmer.

      On primary vote, Libs and Lab 2 full quotas, then Greens 0.8156, Libs 0.6059, Palmer 0.4850, so again it was the Libs done out on preference in favor of Palmer, with in the final distrbution, only Sex Party preferences flowing to the Libs over the Palmer United party.

      South Australia: 2Libs, 1Lab, 1Greens, 1Xenephon, 1Family First.

      Primary vote 1 each Libs, Labs, Xenephon. Partial quotas Libs 0.8680, Xenephon 0.8117, Labor 0.5945, Greens 0.4956, Family First 0.2639, Dems 0.2447, Palmer 0.1902. Here it was Labor and Xenephon done out by the Greens and Family First on preferences.

      WA: 3Libs, 1 each Labor, Australian Sports Party, Greens.
      Primary  

      Primary vote: 2 full quotas Libs, 1 full quota Labor, then Labor 0.8890, Libs 0.7648, Greens 0.6598, Palmer 0.3667, Nationals 0.3012, Dems 0.2394, Australian Christians 0.1138,  Sex Party 0.1003. Here is was Labor done out by Ozzie Sports Party.

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      by BruceMcF on Sat Sep 07, 2013 at 02:59:43 PM PDT

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